Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Feb 23, 2013 16:34:10 GMT -8
End of Day 5.
Let's take a look at the Vote Totals.
Twopatch: 7 (Luvessy, Setsusa, firebolt153, cala, firebolt153, rosegold, Jolyma) Cala: 2 (Marinated, Crazy mg) Yasmi: 1 (DementedDuck rosegold: 1 (Phoenix) Crazy mg: 1 (Yasmi)
Total: 12
Required for 75%: 9 Required for 50%: 7
Twopatch is lynched under both 50% and 75% rules.
Alignment: Rogue.
It is now Night; you may not post until Day 6 begins at 4:30am Pacific Time on Sunday 24th February. All night actions must be received by 4am to be considered valid.
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Twopatch
Cabin Person
Likely to be eaten by a Grue
Posts: 92
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Post by Twopatch on Feb 23, 2013 16:36:02 GMT -8
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Feb 23, 2013 16:40:51 GMT -8
And yes, the deadline had passed, but it's only three minutes and I wanted the count to be right. Disclaimer: Looking for clues in moderator fluff is only going to drive you round the bend.
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Post by wrecker15 on Feb 24, 2013 4:31:37 GMT -8
Chiquitita, you and I know How the heartaches come and they go and the scars they're leaving You'll be dancing once again and the pain will end You will have no time for grieving
firebolt153 is banned.
Your next deadline is at 4.30am PST on Wednesday, 27th Feb.
You have 10 players remaining, so 8 for a 75% lynch and 6 for a straight lynch.
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Post by Jolyma on Feb 24, 2013 9:45:12 GMT -8
Ok, so then a roleclaim was banned. This makes me believe even more that there was a specific reason for Bunny's. There is no PWS role, so they'd have to do something else to role check.
I am WIFOM with Duck. Firebolt's role must have been town, it makes no sense to ban a rogue now. I would think that Duck's super secret role would be more threatening than a possible power steal. Since Firebolt didn't know WHO used the power on the person she chose to target, it isn't like it leads a trail back to a rogue, also since she didn't seem to be told if it was a rogue power or town power. The WIFOM part for me is the possibility of not banning him to get us to lynch him. I would think that risky though.
Luv has moved from neutral to leaning innocent for her role in Twopatch's lynch.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 24, 2013 11:00:58 GMT -8
I have to admit, Twopatch's last post yesterday put enough doubt in my mind to stop me voting there. I'm glad the rest of you have a stronger resolve than me. ;P In light of Twopatch flipping rogue, marinated and yasmi both drop off my FoS list. My gut's still insisting they're rogues but it can't argue with logic, and Twopatch gives them both FoS here and here. marinated moves back to null, and yasmi gets some FoI. Would still vote marinated (happy, gut?). Cala gets some FoI from here. Here Twopatch addresses Luv's concerns about his alleged tunnel vision. He voices no suspicion of her, nor any FoI. This could be a way of seeming to communicate with Luv whilst not giving any information about her alignment, should he later die. One mistake he made with riss, as others have pointed out, was to not talk to/about her at all. It's worth noting this post came after riss' lynch and it's possible rogue Twopatch and rogue Luvessy realised Twopatch could be linked to riss this way and posted at each other a few times to prevent being linked to each other in the same manner later. That being said, I now need to check Luv's interactions with Twopatch, and also with riss, to see if her being a rogue is plausible. -After the tied lynch saving Tae, riss and firebolt, Luv suggests they were all innocent.-She didn't vote for riss. She didn't really say she thinks riss is innocent, just that she's "not sure what to think" of it. - Here she says one of the three people focused on Tae for the first few days is probably a rogue. Rules out yasmi, is left with Joly and Twopatch. Still intends to reread Joly. - Says the interaction between Twopatch and riss is odd but doesn't actually say anything else about it. Just that it's odd. - Cala moves up her list if Twopatch is innocent. (I think Cala is likely innocent) I can definitely see rogue Luvessy with rogue Twopatch and rogue riss. What gives me pause is the fact she's been on Crazy for quite a while. So I suppose I now have to check Crazy's interactions with the know rogues. *sigh* - Early mention of Luv who makes her "gut twinge ever so slightly". Great example of the kind of suspicion that's easy to pussy out of I mentioned yesterday. -Is poked by Luvessy here. -She's " not sold" on the idea of rogue Twopatch. - Thinks we should target Luv if Twopatch is innocent. If she is a rogue, she knew Twopatch wasn't innocent and so there's no danger in saying this about Luv. I'm actually going to stop there and say I don't see Luv and Crazy both being rogues. I think Luv is the more likely rogue and would like to lynch her today, but if she flips innocent I'll come back to Crazy. Summary: FoS - Luvessy Crazy FoI - Cala Yasmi Sets I have very little impression of anyone else and that's something I really need to rectify when I get the chance.
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Post by Crazy Mg on Feb 24, 2013 13:12:37 GMT -8
Unfortunately I haven't been able to do the rereading I wanted to but,
Current thoughts :
Most likely innocent: Sets- Having voted for both Riss and TwoPatch, Sets is either a rogue rouge or innocent, rogue rogue is unlikely so innocent it is! DD- Riss' lynch. Rose- Coming out of nowhere to vote tae and save yasmi, a rogue wouldn't have done that unless Yasmi was also a rogue and then also voting for twopatch. Yasmi- Despite some major WTFery, I'm choosing to believe Yasmi is Innocent and telling the truth about her role. Hopefully she found something interesting last night. Cala- I said I'd drop it, so I will.
and that would leave the remaining rogues hidden amongst: Luv, Marinated, Joly, Phoe,
Luv and Marinated are unlikely to be rogues together.
Right now I'm probably most suspicious of Phoe, only just though, so I'm okay with a lynch on any of the above 4.
I have a break right now cause tutorials don't run in the first week, but I'm not sure how much I will be around toDay, I do have the day of the deadline off, but I have homework for next week already, Woo! T.T I will leave a proxy just in case there's a post explosion and I'm unable to get caught up in time. Who on my innocent list will be around at deadline?
Now rereading time!
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Post by Luvessy on Feb 24, 2013 13:42:50 GMT -8
Yay for Twopatch being a rogue and sticking there. Duck's post leaves me rather confused. He drops suspicion on Marinated, who has now not voted for a known rogue thrice, each time saying the arguments are bad, that she doesn't see a rogue, and trying to put pressure elsewhere. But, let me respond to points about me: That being said, I now need to check Luv's interactions with Twopatch, and also with riss, to see if her being a rogue is plausible. -After the tied lynch saving Tae, riss and firebolt, Luv suggests they were all innocent.I presented the possibility that there were all innocent, given past games where votes were tied, and all the people receiving votes were...innocent. Worth noting this didn't go through, not because of the tie, but because there were not having enough voters. (Bunny in particular criticized my analysis because of this point.) Why? Because Marinated and Riss refused to vote (it would lynch Riss), and Firebolt, Crazymg, and Rosegold didn't vote at all. (Phoenix did not vote but did leave a proxy that was not picked up. Yes, I was one of the people who did not take it. My vote that round was on Firebolt.) It was a re-statement in discussion with Setsusa about Riss not mentioning Twopatch. Twopatch didn't have much to say about Riss. I say re-statement, as I actually first made the point all the way back here. Because Twopatch is a rogue? Interesting. While I wouldn't go so far as to declare Cala innocent, I'm less apt to think her a rogue toDay. Which is what I said. I'm going to review Bunny, because Joly's insistence that Bunny must have had a role to have been banned in lieu of known roleholders seems rather single-minded. It makes me wonder if Bunny said something incriminating that rogues would want to push us away from. (If Joly is a rogue and therefore knows the reason for the ban, of course.) I suspect that the rogues just considered Bunny more of a threat than the others and less likely to be lynched. but, maybe she was onto something. However, I think it's less likely that multiple rogues were so focused on Tae, so 2Patch being a rogue makes me somewhat less suspicious of Joly. Marinated is high on my FoS list, and whom I'm most likely to vote. Interested in hearing about Yasmi's nighttime adventures and an answer to my question at deadline yesterDay. Oh, on preview, I see I have reason to still be suspicious of Crazy. Why are you suspicious of me again? It's good to note that Crazy did not vote for Riss on Day 2 or Day 3 (voting for Sets instead), and did not vote for Twopatch yesterDay. Although, she had her game plan lined up for the condition that Twopatch was rogue. Ironically, I was her suggestion for a lynch should Twopatch be innocent, but am now also her suggestion for a lynch now that Twopatch is a rogue. I guess it's nice to be on people's minds? Anyway, would a rogue Marinated and a rogue Crazy both vote together, opposite a rogue lynch? It seems dangerous. So, I guess I'm back to being happy to vote for Crazy, as well.
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Post by Jolyma on Feb 24, 2013 14:33:01 GMT -8
Actually, I said that Bunny must have been banned for a reason. Having a role is one of those possibilities, but without a PWS role, as I said in my last post, it might be hard for the rogues to deduce roleholders. I've not insisted it was for role only.
I HAVE insisted there had to be a reason for it though, I agree. Why else ban Bunny rather than one of 3 roleclaims.
Another possibilty I brought up was that one of the roleclaims is fake, and they wanted to disguise that.
Just to be clear.
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Post by Luvessy on Feb 24, 2013 14:42:53 GMT -8
Another reason could be that Bunny had substantial FoI. More than the known roleholders.
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Post by Jolyma on Feb 24, 2013 15:26:39 GMT -8
That isn't a very logical reason to ban her over a role though. As I was told when I tried to fake a role and didn't get banned, rogues don't like roles, they're too dangerous to keep around, even over FOIers.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 24, 2013 15:35:16 GMT -8
He drops suspicion on Marinated, who has now not voted for a known rogue thrice, each time saying the arguments are bad, that she doesn't see a rogue, and trying to put pressure elsewhere. This is why she dropped from suspicious to null, as opposed to innocent. And why I'm still willing to vote there. I get your point and my gut definitely still wants her lynched above everyone else but I can't really ignore the evidence in light of Twopatch's alignment. I never actually finished this thought. It was more that you'd previously said you were left with Twopatch and Joly, said you needed to review Joly too and went on to say this about Twopatch. It felt like you were more inclined to see him as innocent than Jolyma. I feel like I'm all over the place right now because my gut is pulling me in directions my head doesn't always want to go and damn my gut is determined. I'm actually going to listen to it and vote: marinatedsince it served me so well with riss. Happy to move to Luv or Crazy at the moment.
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Post by Marinated on Feb 24, 2013 17:32:35 GMT -8
Current thoughts:
Cala - still don't like her sudden suspicion and vote for Riss after not mentioning her earlier, fourth to vote for Twopatch with the likelihood that Firebolt would move her vote there making it five. Twopatch's comments on her could have been distancing.
Crazy - a possibilty based on votes, the only thing I really recall was the pre-emptive defence after Seastar's ban, need to reread.
DD - voting says innocent, role says maybe, I'm still not sure about his role and Firebolt's having the same alignment, gut says probably innocent.
Jolyma - a definite possibilty based on votes, gut is not so sure, need to reread to work out why I thought she was unlikely to be Riss's partner.
Luvessy - leading the lynch on Twopatch doesn't seem to make sense for a rogue as he wasn't really under a great deal of pressure so probably innocent, despite her earlier posts that made me think rogue (not so much the recent ones though).
Phoenix - I don't know, need to reread.
Rosegold - need to take another look, but her votes look like bandwagonning.
Sets - almost certainly innocent.
Yasmi - probably innocent.
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Post by Marinated on Feb 24, 2013 18:16:10 GMT -8
Ok, so then a roleclaim was banned. This makes me believe even more that there was a specific reason for Bunny's. There is no PWS role, so they'd have to do something else to role check. The fact that there's no PWS doesn't stop the rogues having a role divining power. @ DD: Your gut's wrong this time. :)
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Post by Luvessy on Feb 24, 2013 18:43:32 GMT -8
I never actually finished this thought. It was more that you'd previously said you were left with Twopatch and Joly, said you needed to review Joly too and went on to say this about Twopatch. It felt like you were more inclined to see him as innocent than Jolyma. But I voted for Twopatch and the comment was about Cala? I said I needed to review Joly and I didn't vote for her. How do you get from me wanting to look at Jolyma to me thinking her more roguish than the person I'm voting for? Joly's been giving me niggles, although some of the interaction with Riss makes me think they wouldn't be rogues together. I'm rather undecided on Jolyma.
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Post by Setsusa on Feb 24, 2013 19:46:00 GMT -8
I'm good with lynching Marinated or Phoe at the moment. Going to want to look back over some things to check into Marinated because I think that might change.
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Post by Setsusa on Feb 24, 2013 19:52:24 GMT -8
Also.
Yasmi, DD, wha'd you guys do / find last night?
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Post by Jolyma on Feb 24, 2013 19:57:46 GMT -8
Ok, so then a roleclaim was banned. This makes me believe even more that there was a specific reason for Bunny's. There is no PWS role, so they'd have to do something else to role check. The fact that there's no PWS doesn't stop the rogues having a role divining power. @ DD: Your gut's wrong this time. :) Right, which is why I said that they would have to do something else to role check. The thing is, most other things aren't as definite as a straight PWS. Like tracking or watching. If you take Ducky's claim at face value, and he's tracked on a Night he hasn't chosen to use a role, or if he was watched instead of followed. It's not impossible, it's just that the odds aren't the best for it. So Ducky, you have FOS, but you're going to instead vote what you claim is at null?
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Post by Jolyma on Feb 24, 2013 20:00:32 GMT -8
By the way, that was just an example of how iffy roles can be. I don't think that Yasmi is a rogue, nor am I in any way implying it.
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Post by yasmi on Feb 24, 2013 20:13:22 GMT -8
i am tired and had no time to post i was blocked again when tried to track Luv
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Post by cala on Feb 25, 2013 0:27:30 GMT -8
Quick post before I get all 3 kids out of the door to school and nursery (as half term break is over).
Right now my thoughts are leaning in Mari, Crazy and Phoe and Rose's direction, so my intention is to have another good look at them today. Mari has missed the rogues, with the defense of she doesn't see it whilst putting a lot of posts out on others, Crazy as I have been saying for a while is really niggling me, Phoe - I just dont know what to think and Rose, well Rose isn't here and seems to come in and jump on a vote then disappear again and not giving us anything to go off.
Current FOS's are Marinated, Rose and Crazy WL: Phoe
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Phoenix
Cabin Person
I come from the Land Down Under
Posts: 99
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Post by Phoenix on Feb 25, 2013 1:57:28 GMT -8
At this point i'm seeing the following people as suspicious from top of list to bottom being almost certain that they're innocent Rosegold Twopatch yasmi Cala Firebolt DementedDuck Joly sets Marinated Luvessy Crazymg, no longer play ROMS since 2013 apparantly. Nah Phoenix has a crappy memory since forever and was using the quick reply box down the bottom. Didn't take the time to open another page and double check I had everyone still playing. You'd fit in around about under DementedDuck and above Joly for your reference though. Was also typing on the netbook and I loathe typing on the netbook as half of the keys that I find incredibly important only work half the time. Space bar, shift keys, the A key, that kind of thing. Vote: RosegoldMy reasons still haven't changed. I will be doing my level best to go back and read the thread if the stupid weather lets up a little bit. Wireless internet + Thunderstorms = Frustrated!Phoenix can't stay online. Getting my vote out there in case for some reason the storms for the next couple of days keep me offline like they did today. I *really* want to go and see if I can see what on earth made the rogues ban Bunny over role holders, however I feel a little better about thinking that DD's role isn't a role but rogue powers - and Firebolt was the counter. Actually that then makes sense of Bunny's ban. DD steals vote of Marinated. DD role claims for no apparent reason but to give Marinated FOI Firebolt reveals that she stole the ability to steal a vote. Bunny gets banned (Rogues hope that Firebolt steals an innocent vote) Firebolt steals Twopatch's vote Twopatch flips rogue Rogues don't want Firebolt to be able to steal their powers again so Firebolt banned unvote: Rosegold Vote: DementedDuckYes I had a thought and convinced myself in the same post that I could be onto something. It's the only thing I can come up with - without being able to find what on earth may have been seen in Bunny's posts. I'm still going to go read over things if I can however the wanting to get a vote out there is still for the same reasons. Thunderstorms give migraines, crappy internet connections and tense shoulders.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 25, 2013 2:49:24 GMT -8
@luv Yeah, derp. I iso'd your posts instead of reading the thread so I wasn't really paying attention to... well, anything else. I really am all over the place. I don't think you're a rogue because you lead the lynch on Twopatch.
Jolyma: Yep, pretty much. I'm listening to my gut here.
Sets:
I rolled a Human Shield power - any actions targeting the player I chose would instead be directed at me. I chose Crazy. I didn't get any PMs so nobody targeted her.
Phoenix: That makes sense for the vote stealing power, but I'm not a vote stealer - I only get to do it once. It doesn't work very well for the rest of my powers. Like last Night, for example, what use would the Human Shield power be for a rogue to steal? Especially as firebolt stealing my power doesn't actually stop me using it. In fact, that fact means her role is completely useless as a counter to mine. And you know I'm telling the truth about that because marinated confirmed her vote was stolen before I roleclaimed.
Also, the point of roleclaiming was to prevent FoI of marinated, not give it to her. She only gets FoI from it if I get lynched and flip rogue, and my intention is to not die so that makes no sense.
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Post by Marinated on Feb 25, 2013 3:19:11 GMT -8
Why choose to target Crazy? Why not Yasmi or Firebolt? And why are you assuming that no PMs means she wasn't targetted?
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Post by Marinated on Feb 25, 2013 3:52:29 GMT -8
Jolyma - a definite possibilty based on votes, gut is not so sure, need to reread to work out why I thought she was unlikely to be Riss's partner. Looking back, the only significant thing I found was their exchanges over the JMT comment. It could have been distancing but I'm inclined to think it was genuine, on Joly's part at least, although I still think it was a bit of an over-reaction. So saying Joly is probably innocent.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 25, 2013 4:01:03 GMT -8
Right, derp again. I guess I mean she wasn't targeted by anything she'd have found out about.
I didn't target yasmi or firebolt because I thought they were likely ban candidates and I don't want to die. I may think/have thought them both innocent, but I know I'm innocent for sure.
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Post by Marinated on Feb 25, 2013 4:39:42 GMT -8
Why use the shield at all then? If you'd used it on Yasmi she may have got some more info. I think it was safe to assume she would be blocked rather than banned as Firebolt had a day role so couldn't be blocked (unless the block covers the following Day as well). And you didn't say why you chose Crazy. The fact that there's no PWS doesn't stop the rogues having a role divining power. Right, which is why I said that they would have to do something else to role check. The thing is, most other things aren't as definite as a straight PWS. Like tracking or watching. If you take Ducky's claim at face value, and he's tracked on a Night he hasn't chosen to use a role, or if he was watched instead of followed.But if they have a role divining power they don't have to use something else. They can just use that power to make a direct check.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 25, 2013 4:52:39 GMT -8
Because it feels like a waste if I don't use it.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 25, 2013 4:53:01 GMT -8
In any case, I could have blocked a role divine, so it is worth using it.
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Post by DementedDuck on Feb 25, 2013 4:55:00 GMT -8
Oh, right, why I chose Crazy. Note to self, read a whole post before replying.
I didn't want to pick anyone with decent FoI because I didn't want to be banned. I actually wanted to pick someone most people felt null about, and in hindsight I wish I'd picked Sets. The danger of picking someone with FoI is getting banned and the danger of picking someone with FoS is blocking a town role. I really don't think I was thinking when I picked Crazy. But that was my thought process.
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