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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 22, 2013 19:54:51 GMT -8
Aethera, I apologize for exaggerating your view. However, I don't think the difference between FoI and leaning innocent substantively undermines what I was saying. Also, with this post, I'm curious about why you would let 'some people getting irritated' by reliance on past games stop you from digging up information if you really felt it was relevant to who you thought was a rogue. I feel like a townie focused on catching the bad guy would dig up the information they needed to clarify a point, even if they didn't use the past games as material for a case. Also, you not voting for me to "give me time to respond to what you'd said" reads to me as more of an excuse (like maybe you wanted to vote marinated but needed to justify voting her and not me), because what you had said, the point about your FoI not being as strong as I implied, didn't seem like the kind of thing that begged clarification from me. Regarding me miscounting on purpose, I didn't see Aethera bringing that theory up as suspicious, because she was just preempting the inevitable "well what if that's what AL WANTS you to think" that would have been thrown out if she had simply stated that she leaned innocent on me for the booch without any caveats. Last note on Aethera, Setsusa, I'm wondering why you think she's innocent? I find it entirely possible despite my suspicion there, but I'd like to hear your reasoning. Only other interesting thing I noted was taelac's voting last round (she voted marinated on gut and then switched to Aethera). If taelac was a rogue, I think these actions would have been beneficial to her. Because she was the third vote on Aethera, if Aethera had been lynched and innocent, I think we all would have thought that rogue taelac would have no reason to do what she did, because it draws attention to her for helping lynch a townsperson. And I think that's exactly why she would switch as a rogue, thereby gaining FoI. She would count on that reaction, if that makes sense. Because taelac could have ridden out the round with a vote on marinated, as a rogue she would theoretically have no need to switch, and therefore she would in fact do so to garner some FoI for herself. Just a theory, but it meshes well with her not giving much reasoning for voting Aethera.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 22, 2013 20:07:07 GMT -8
One further point: marinated singleton-voting Leif while having three votes on her feels slightly innocent to me. Obviously as a rogue she could just switch later, and in fact she did end up on Aethera. But when you're up for the lynch you want people to have other lynchable targets to vote for, so it would take a lot of self-control as a rogue not to throw a vote on one of the other candidates already out there and to instead vote someone unlikely to be lynched. I believe marinated has that kind of self-control, but even so I think it would be a risky play for a rogue. Also, the switch to Aethera didn't come until after taelac had unvoted marinated, so she was in less-desperate straits at the time, which means the vote change doesn't negate the point about the original vote for Leif.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
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Post by Furare on May 23, 2013 3:33:15 GMT -8
Welcome to the start of Day 2.
Morning came. The players gathered. All but one. No sign of Marinated. A few people looked at each other, wondering. They went to her room. Found her sprawled across a table. An empty chair across from her. A hand of cards face down next to her. Furare turned them over. Two pair. Black aces. Black eights.
Furare snorted. "Figures," she said.
[Marinated is banned.]
There are 6 players remaining; you require 4 votes for one person to secure a lynch.
Your next lynch deadline is 4:30am PDT on May 25th.
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Taelac
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Post by Taelac on May 23, 2013 6:54:42 GMT -8
Only other interesting thing I noted was taelac's voting last round (she voted marinated on gut and then switched to Aethera). If taelac was a rogue, I think these actions would have been beneficial to her. Because she was the third vote on Aethera, if Aethera had been lynched and innocent, I think we all would have thought that rogue taelac would have no reason to do what she did, because it draws attention to her for helping lynch a townsperson. And I think that's exactly why she would switch as a rogue, thereby gaining FoI. She would count on that reaction, if that makes sense. Because taelac could have ridden out the round with a vote on marinated, as a rogue she would theoretically have no need to switch, and therefore she would in fact do so to garner some FoI for herself. Just a theory, but it meshes well with her not giving much reasoning for voting Aethera.It's a theory, but considering that I couldn't even successfully buy FoI by saving an innocent with last-minute hijinks in my most recent rogue game, I'm not sure that "we all" would have thought my vote switch was FoI-worthy.
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Taelac
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Post by Taelac on May 23, 2013 18:07:02 GMT -8
Well, this is awkward.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on May 23, 2013 18:12:52 GMT -8
I was going to excuse myself by saying it's been a terribly busy day at work today. So many people out of the office. It looks like we've all had a rough day though. On voting yesterday, I left a little early hoping to be home in time, and also hoping the landscape had changed. I just wasn't convinced that Aeth was a rogue, and I was a little concerned about what struck me as a rather sudden bandwagon. Then I got stuck in traffic and missed it. I don't think ultimately I would have voted for her, so I'm not broken hearted at the out come, but I felt like after pushing for a lynch y'all deserved my reasons. I'm less thrilled, looking over yesterday with Seastar's late stated intention to not vote. I know her common MO is to swoop in late with her votes, but I feel like if we'd known earlier we could work together and build a bit better. I feel it's all the more crucial in this game, with the small group and the 50% rule. I don't see it as a cause for suspicion, I just think if we can keep lines of communication open we can plan better and leave ourselves less open to last minute changes. On a similar topic, I'm somewhat unenthused by Sets saying he was expecting to start slow for 2 Days of a probable 3 Day game. It's not ipso facto suspicious, but there were some niggles I had yesterDay, and setting the expectation that he's going to lay low does little to assuage them. On AL, I'm leaning more towards innocent after reading his night posts. The quantity of information, relative to the rest of his posts strikes me as an innocent trying to get opinions out before daybreak. And I think there's where I'm sitting now.
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Taelac
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Post by Taelac on May 23, 2013 18:42:31 GMT -8
I also had the thought that AL's overnight posts looked like an innocent's pre-dawn efforts, and I thought Seastar's perideadline posts had a similar "get information into the thread" vibe, though to a lesser extent.
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Post by Setsusa on May 23, 2013 19:43:28 GMT -8
More or less Leif I had the knowledge that a lot of my time at work this week was going to be unusually doing physical labor. Realizing that a 7-5 shift while mostly sitting at a desk makes me pretty lazy in the evenings, I was expecting it to be even worse this week. Fortunately my Friday's are half days, so I'd expect myself to have more energy, enthusiasm and time for ROMS after coming home.
More or less I'd sway Seastar over to innocent. I'm starting to lean innocent on Leif as well while Aethera, AL and Tae move over to or stay in the "could be might be rogue" category.
Pop Tarts are delicious.
Frankly, Marinated's early vote on AL was odd, but in hindsight was an innocent jumping at the first possible thing. The more interesting thing, which was pointed to by himself, is Leif's reaction vote. From Leif, and with the reasoning provided this too is a pretty weak vote and prior to the discussion between himself and Marinated I don't think he was all that for leaving his vote there, but more or less using it as a tool for that situation. There's no reason for a rogue Leif to jump right on an innocent Marinated voting an innocent AL. There is reason for him to support it, or let it go and comment as appropriate but not try to shut it down completely. Therefore, barring extraneous circumstances I'm going to rule Leif as innocent for this game. I realize that he is clever enough to make a anti-rogue Leif play off of Marinated's early vote and turn around and ban her to fly way under radars, but I don't think that's a beneficial rogue strategy for a no lynch Day. Given the no lynch I would think a rogue Leif would not ban Marinated after the Day One we had.
Aethera gets +10 helpful innocent points. I also don't understand why she doesn't try to figure out who's innocent early in games apparently, but whatever.
A question for Aethera. Why does agreeing with Leif have no bearing on your suspicions of him, or vice versa? If you think someone is a rogue you would agree with their points that someone else could be a rogue due to <blank> is what this implies. Given that you previously stated you don't play "find the innocents" and only "find the rogues" in most games, why would you trust the arguments of people whose alignments you distrust?
I'm also not particularly sold on why she would think I'm innocent at the time she did with the content I provided. Upon rereading, I would lean rogue on myself if I were unaware, same for AL - what about those two posts seemed innocent? Additionally, I provide two small posts and Aethera thinks I'm straight, to the point innocent me. I provide a lengthier one and she wants to hear more from me - but is unwilling to vote me. I'm confused on your stance at that point.
Leif is innocent, and duly noted as dashing.
I'm a little befuddled about Tae having unusually often similar thoughts as Leif. The third vote onto Aethera and heading out for the Day to me, as stated before reads as wanting a lynch and creating an out for when it goes sour. Combine that with very little reasoning into the vote and it comes off as a rogue friendly play. Something that gives me pause is that it seems too rogue friendly to be small game rogue Tae friendly. I'll have to think over whether this is a genuine rogue mistake or what I feel to be a poor decision as an innocent. Definite suspicion, but I need to think more about whether I want to vote here or if personal opinion is clouding my judgment.
People who are likely to ban Marinated as a rogue: Balls to the wall Leif, me, Taelac, Aethera. Possibly Ssx.
Gee that really dwindles the list down. I think Leif is innocent. I know I'm innocent. I don't think Ssx would ban Marinated (I think she would target Tae or Leif). This leaves me with Taelac and Aethera. I've laid out questions to Aethera and need to ponder Taelac. Cheers.
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Post by Aethera on May 24, 2013 6:58:30 GMT -8
Work is exploding, and I'm considering resigning which is a jerk thing to do in a game this size. I'm incredibly stressed and thinking I could play this game this weekend was idiotic of me.
Clearly my life does not admit time for ROMS anymore. I thought a 7 person game would work for me but I didn't expect to be the target of so many posts.
Since Marinated is banned, I'll have to reevaluate everyone, but I don't think I'll have time ToDay. Sets, I see your questions. My gut said Innocent, straight-on Sets. Considering you never give as much explanation as you should, I don't see why this is a problem for you. Your short posts just struck me that way. I didn't ask for more before your long post, I asked for it after, I thought, but I don't have time to go look. If it was after, it was because your long post didn't provide anything useful in terms of your suspicions, is what I can recall right now. Also I don't think I said that I don't play find the innocents in most games.
I'm clearly not being clear on the agreeing with but finding suspicious thing. My point is there is only one rogue, but I think we can all acknowledge that we're going to find more than one person suspicious in the course of the game. Thus I KNOW that MOST of my suspicions are going to be wrong. Thus I can divorce my slight suspicions on someone (remember, this was first-thing slight suspicion, not multi-point developed suspicion) from agreeing with points from them. We all do this all the time, so I don't know why people are acting like it's new suddenly.
You know what, this is stupid. I can barely remember what I've said, and I don't have time to go back and look to properly rebut things.
I'll try to come back later. If you don't see me within 12 hours, consider that my resignation.
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 7:28:09 GMT -8
Best of luck Aeth. Will consider voting Taelac today. Need to consider ssx and AL more.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 24, 2013 8:57:49 GMT -8
Taelac, yesterDay you said that Setsusa was your highest suspicion but you didn't want to vote him because it would split consensus further. Is there a reason you haven't voted him toDay? <3 Aethera. Setsusa, my innocent read on you came from the fact that the tone of your early posts (suspicions stated concisely but without explanations at first) is something I've seen from innocents in the past but not really from rogues. More later.
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Taelac
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Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 10:36:40 GMT -8
The highest "suspicion" out of a set of small and extremely vague twitches isn't really worth an out-of-the-gate vote to me.
I have been back over the thread trying to see if there's anything to glean from knowing Marinated was innocent, but it hasn't turned up a lot. There are perfectly sensible innocent reasons for everyone's interactions with and about Marinated. Even Sets' marking her out as innocent, which could be the mark of a rogue knowing her status and hoping to curry favor, is more likely explained by Sets' usual brash overconfidence, especially as he does offer a whisker's justification for it in his next post.
Sets, why do you think a rogue Seastar would be more likely to ban Leif or me than Marinated?
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 10:50:40 GMT -8
She has no real gain in banning Marinated, and people could suggest it was some convoluted retaliation over her early vote. I think she as I would fear you or Leif more as a rogue.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 24, 2013 13:20:43 GMT -8
Okay, let's see. If Aethera has to leave us, assume she is innocent. That leaves me, Seastar, taelac, Setsusa, and Leif. Seastar strikes me as innocent so far, which means exactly nothing since as a rogue she would also probably strike me as innocent. However, I wouldn't vote for her. Taelac-The vote switch I mentioned before really did seem like the kind of thing she would do as a rogue. That in itself, though, isn't evidence that she is one. The agreeing with Leif thing is strange, because agreeing too much usually doesn't look good-so as a rogue, why not just invent some opinions that were different from his? Still, there is a notable lack of justified suspicions in her posts so far, so I would be willing to vote for taelac. Setsusa-I haven't seen anything to make me think he's a rogue. That said, it's tough to tell because I've never seen him play as one. Leif-I don't follow all of Setsusa's logic about him being innocent. I don't see any reason a rogue Leif wouldn't suspect/vote Marinated.
Not a very productive run-down, but that's where I am at the moment. I am going to vote tonight, but I don't want to do so yet because I want more time to mull things over.
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 15:49:38 GMT -8
No no AL it's not about Leif suspect/voting Marinated, it's about rogue Leif being that active about it and then banning her, why would he?
Vote: Taelac
I will be back before deadline, this vote is here to show my support for a lynch of Taelac this round. As I stated before, I'm absolutely fine if we decide to abstain from lynching as much as possible because I don't think a rogue could hide that many Days. For now, this is who I believe to be the rogue. If other votes come up to lynch Taelac, I will keep my vote here. If votes come up for Leif I will probably unvote and hope for a no lynch. If it goes down towards Ssx, AL, Aethera or myself, I'm not sure what my stance will be as it would depend on content and context that aren't here right now.
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Taelac
Officer
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 18:14:50 GMT -8
I don't think there's been enough discussion today to generate any kind of consensus. I will be kind of around for the next hour or so, but I don't plan to vote at this time, and I will certainly not be rising early on a Saturday morning to make the deadline.
For those looking my way...what will it tell you if I am lynched and flip innocent? I suppose it might also be useful to know what it would tell those not currently thinking of voting me would learn from that same information.
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Leif
Senior Chatterbox
Posts: 600
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Post by Leif on May 24, 2013 18:58:38 GMT -8
Yeah, while I hate to lose another day, this has been a slow one. I'll be around for a bit yet though if we want to work on some sort of concensus.
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 19:10:14 GMT -8
Taelac, allow me to flip your own words upon yourself.
What would Marinated flipping innocent have told you yesterDay that it was worthy enough to place a third vote onto her as your last move of the day, hours before the deadline? And as an extension to the rest of the players, how much different is your estimation of the amount, value, or whatever of the information gathered from lynching Marinated yesterday vs Taelac today?
Her defense is practically "let's not do what I did yesterDay".
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Taelac
Officer
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Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 19:15:45 GMT -8
Since you're the one with the tendency to refuse to answer direct questions, you answer mine in the next fifteen minutes, and I'll answer yours.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 24, 2013 19:15:50 GMT -8
Setsusa, that makes sense, but Leif had unvoted Marinated, so I don't think his former suspicion on her would be as much of a deterrent from a ban. That said, you would think if he were going to ban his main focus, he'd choose another suspect to pursue, which he hasn't apart from some niggles on you.
Taelac, I wasn't thinking of it from an information-gathering perspective so much as a lynching-a-rogue perspective. That said, at least if we lynched you and you were innocent it would eliminate someone I was unsure of, whereas if we just leave the power in the hands of the rogue, they get to choose what information we get.
While I see what Setsusa is saying about a rogue not being able to hide the many rounds the game would take if we passed up our lynches, that really means betting everything on one round. From a rogue perspective, that's pretty nice, since they have to survive a 'last round' regardless and that way they don't have to worry about getting lynched in any of the previous ones. So it's quite iffy to me as a proposition.
I know we didn't accomplish a lot this round, but I think I'll go ahead and Vote: taelac anyway. I think she could very well be guilty and even if she is innocent or survives the round, we need some momentum. I would guess with Aethera resigning we need 3 votes to lynch, but Furare's probably asleep so I'm not sure-what do you guys think?
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Taelac
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 19:21:59 GMT -8
Okay, I'm asking you to think about it from an information-gathering perspective. Assume for a moment that I have been lynched, and you're all still called back to the card table.
Essentially what I'm going for here is making sure that if I'm lynched overnight, the remaining innocents can get something useful out of it.
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Leif
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Posts: 600
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Post by Leif on May 24, 2013 19:29:21 GMT -8
I was pretty neutral on Tae yesterday. Sets or AL can you run down a case?
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 19:30:47 GMT -8
Innocent flipping Taelac = rogue is lying low, SSX and AL jump to forefront. If Aeth isn't removed, that leaves me with two people I'm unsure of and two rounds to find the rogue. I don't think Aeth would openly say she may have to resign as a rogue in this size game. If Aeth is eliminated then it's a 3-1 and at current I'd place AL over SSX as rogue.
As per before, I've written Leif off as innocent. Were tomorrow to become a 3-1 and there were two votes on Leif, I'd vote him as it's the only option, otherwise I wouldn't. This might be a miscalculation and a very well crafted maneuver from Leif if he is a rogue but I do not believe that to be the case.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 24, 2013 19:35:54 GMT -8
If you were lynched and innocent, I would probably look more closely at Setsusa, Leif, and SeastarX. More seriously, I can't really know because it would depend on how the lynch occurred. I can say something like 'If you were magically lynched and innocent with just our two votes, I would probably look closely at Leif for staying on the sidelines.' But to some extent the reality is closer to what I said above about looking at all three of them. I'm also reading things with your possible innocence in mind anyway, since if we lynch you and you're a rogue there's no point continuing to analyze posts by definition. Leif You say you hate to lose another day, but do you? What do you think we should do? I guess a run down from my perspective would be that she hasn't really been building cases against anyone, I think her voting last round could be a rogue attempt to buy FoI, her clearing up of the misunderstanding between you and Marinated reminded me of a time she was a rogue and did something similar (obvious rejoinder that it's a completely valid innocent action too, but I'm just being truthful about what sparked my suspicion), her recent posts are JMTs, and her refusal to answer Sets' question reads like an attempt to stall another round.
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Taelac
Officer
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 19:37:48 GMT -8
How does my flipping innocent suggest a rogue lying low?
And how do you connect the dots between a rogue lying low and AL, who has been generally present and active in the thread?
As for what we might have learned from a Marinated lynch, much of that would have depended on who the fourth vote would have been, but it would also have made me suspicious of Leif, who made the most argument for her lynch based on what turned out to be an inaccurate reading. Marinated being banned gives less information, and did not make me suspicious of Leif, who reasonably unvoted when the inaccurate reading he and I both made was finally untangled.
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on May 24, 2013 19:42:55 GMT -8
I have neither made a JMT nor did I refuse to answer Sets' question. I put a condition on the timing of my answer, because it was the only way to ensure that I actually got an answer out of Sets.
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 19:45:29 GMT -8
Sure, Leif.
Tae gave us an I'm here, and then a null post with a bunch of "Well blah blah but bloobitybloo so yeah" as it read to me. It seemed like stunted thoughts that weren't going anywhere.
Then, this post:
This comes towards the end of Day One. This post bothers me a lot. Between this post and her wafflepost she votes Marinated with 10 hours to deadline, on a "twitch" while providing the vote list for everyone. Not sure if that falls into helpful innocent or self thought collection and explains that because there were four voters on four people the three nonvoters would need to all pile on to one of the voted to get a lynch. While this is pretty cut, dry and obvious, given that she votes Marinated on a twitch with as mentioned by AL or SSX (can't remember which) not mentioning Marinated prior, and then later switching from Marinated to Aethera tells me that Taelac is very prolynch this Day One.
We then get to the above quoted post. Taelac hasn't mentioned all of the players in the game at the time of this post, I'm not sure many of us had so her initial argument is contradicted by her own content. I don't really see the difference between Person A getting lynched when they've said "Well person B smells like cheese and that's funky" vs. Person A getting lynched without saying anything about person B. The most active thing in my opinion was the tussle between you and Marinated and that would have only suggested information about the person who didn't die if one of you was lynched, and given Marinated's innocence and my feeling that you are innocent it wouldn't have actually told us anything about the rogue. Unless it's AL and then we know she makes counting mistakes as a rogue. Book that as a future tell if she flips rogue.
The truly bothersome part of the quoted part is where she says her suspicions would have been raised by the person who placed the hammer vote onto Aethera had Aethera been lynched and innocent. So the person stating "Look we should lynch and we need to agree to a consensus between these voted people amongst us currently not voting to get a lynch so vote", then voting without reason to stir momentum (this I'm fine with) and then switching to be a third (of four needed) votes on another "twitchy" player and saying she probably won't be around for the last 5.5 hours of the Day bothers me a lot. How would someone going "Yes Taelac, you are right we should lynch I will vote Aethera to get the lynch through" be suspicious to Taelac when she set up the possibility for that hammervote for a lynch she wanted?
(Also from Taelac)
But apparently it is enough to try to create a lynch in the last 10 hours of the Day which I could be wrong, but the count then matters a lot more than in the first 10 hours of the Day.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on May 24, 2013 19:48:27 GMT -8
Fair enough, since you both followed through. I don't understand the advantage to sitting back letting ourselves get picked off. I think Taelac has a greater chance of being a rogue than others. Why should we wait and wager everything on a final 3-1 or 2-1 round when we could have two chances instead of one to kill the guilty party? We shouldn't lynch totally for the hell of it, but simply giving up lynches doesn't make sense either, especially from my perspective since I have a suspicion currently.
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 19:49:40 GMT -8
The above is in no way true and you know it, Taelac. Play this game, not whatever problems you have with me on personal levels from past encounters. Perhaps you are, but I put this statement here as blanket.
If you are not a rogue, I am not a rogue, I don't think Leif is a rogue and Aethera is eliminated, it leaves me with SSX (lying low) and AL who's been present but a lot of it was with the miscount. As stated, I would lean to SSX being rogue over AL were I faced with the decision of the two. It's in no way "Well Taelac was innocent so the rogue is laying low!" It's "This is who is left. This is what makes sense to me at present."
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Post by Setsusa on May 24, 2013 19:50:50 GMT -8
You know what the first statement in my previous post is probably an overreaction to a misinterpretation I made when reading what Taelac said. I took it more literally than it was likely intended. Whoops!
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