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Post by Setsusa on Jul 7, 2013 13:40:35 GMT -8
I need to re-evaluate this game to see where I end up. Initially and unsurprisingly my belief is that Crazy is more roguey than Riku, there just hasn't been too much that looked like something Riku would do as a rogue. That said, Riku's a crafty person and I respect his versatility.
Today's been busy fro me, I'll try to get something out tonight that does a much better job of representing my current stance....once I determine what that actually is.
Busy for you two as well, I guess?
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Post by Riku on Jul 7, 2013 14:13:03 GMT -8
So, rather unfortunate timing on this, I know, but I'm going to be out of reach of internet for the next several days. I should be able to check in tomorrow, but in case I can't, I'll put all my thoughts out here.
I wasn't entirely truthful about my suspicions yesterday. Well, I was at the time, but after some rereading they changed. It was perhaps more like Sets ~= Leif > Crazy. After rereading Sets, he just seems a little too... cautious. I've noticed a trend of innocent Sets declaring people as innocent without much prompting. He doesn't do it every game, but he does it often, and it was notably absent this game. In fact, he did quite the opposite. Leif, Crazy, and I he was suspicious of, but rather than call the other two innocent, he was a bit more hesitant. Here's the quote:
Compared to his first listing of suspicion last game:
Now, as for the ban. Leif ban obviously point to Crazy, and I don't think she'd have any problem with banning him anyway if she were a rogue. If she had banned me, it would leave Sets more suspicious of her than Leif, and Leif much more suspicious of her than Sets, so that seems like an unlikely choice. If she banned Sets, that would leave me roughly equal suspicion-wise between Leif and Crazy, although I was favoring Crazy in the Leif-Crazy debate, so she may have wanted that. If she banned Leif, it leaves Sets equally suspicious of me and her, and me more suspicious of her than Sets. Conclusion: Crazy bans Leif or Sets.
Sets banning, on the other hand, is much more complicated, due to the fact that fewer people are suspicious of him, and also he doesn't know where Crazy's suspicions lie. If he banned me, it would leave Leif more suspicious of Crazy, and Crazy probably more suspicious of Sets than Leif, or perhaps equal between the two. If he banned Crazy, I'm more suspicious of Leif than him, especially after I noted my suspicion change, and Leif is more suspicious of him than me. This seems less likely. If he banned Leif, I'm more suspicious of Crazy than him (and I haven't pointed out any suspicion of Sets all game), and Crazy is probably more suspicious of him than me, but we don't know. Also, there's the bonus that the Leif ban points heavily to Crazy. Conclusion: Sets bans Leif or me.
So.... it's hard to tell. Which brings me back to ban #1. At that point in the game, I was suspicious of Joly; Sets was suspicious of me, Leif, and Crazy; Joly was suspicious of Sets; Yasmi was leaning towards me, Sets, and Leif; Leif hadn't really expressed suspicion. In addition to the reasoning I've already discussed about why I think it's more likely for Sets to ban Yasmi than for Crazy to, I don't think there's any reason in that situation for Crazy to ban someone that wasn't suspicious of her.
In conclusion, Sets doesn't seem like innocent Sets, while Crazy doesn't not seem like innocent Crazy. The ban on Leif could go either way, but I can't see Crazy banning Yasmi from any angle I look at the situation.
Vote: Setsusa
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Post by Setsusa on Jul 7, 2013 18:05:38 GMT -8
I'm a little confused. I made different style posts when I had different amount of time for the game, not to mention the games compared had a very vast difference in content available at the times of the compared posts, which therefore means it's not a innocent Sets thing to do? Compare those posts to similarly early posts in other games and you'll find the same thing, if anything what I posted last game as more of a non-Sets thing. Granted, I do have a habit of blatantly saying what my suspicions and innocent feels are often and as early as possible because it's just helpful. This game the first Day was one of the closest things to a wash as I've ever experienced in ROMS and it left me with very little impression of anyone, thus my caution which has carried through the game. I'm not sure I entirely follow all of the ban logic but it seems fairly reasonable. I'll have to admittedly reread it in a bit after eating some food, brain's out of thinking power
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Post by Crazy Mg on Jul 7, 2013 20:01:10 GMT -8
Got distracted with Uni stuff, realised next semester starts next week and I don't have all the books I need (refuse to use bookstore on campus cause $$$). And I'd been think about changing one of my majors for awhile and got distracted looking into that stuff too.
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Post by Setsusa on Jul 8, 2013 13:57:17 GMT -8
Alright, now that I'm in a ROMS mood and have actually comprehended Riku's post, I understand why a lot of it comes off to me as "What you talkin' bout Willis?"
On the topic of me being cautious - the post referenced is used as if it supports your argument, when it doesn't. You're saying that I was cautious to say Jolyma or Yasmi was innocent. While the plain text in the quote could be representative of that, rereading the thread for context makes it pretty clear that I had two groups of people - people I was suspicious of and people I had no idea on because they had hardly said anything, thus the "Test one two three. Response?"
Regarding ban logic, I agree with some of it. I'm not sure why you'd leave out an analysis of yourself. Rogue you has a play to make there, but you skip over whether it's possible that you banned Leif. Here's how it breaks down to me.
Leif, Sets and Riku have some amount of suspicion on Crazy, moreso than other people. All three have not ruled out suspicion on the other two, however it's notable that Riku has hardly mentioned Sets and Leif has said he doesn't really see a rogue Sets. Crazy's thoughts are presumably "Vote Sets" from what she's said before, but as I pointed out - who knows if that's still the case. Leif finds Crazy suspicious. Riku sort of thinks Leif is suspicious and is waffling on Crazy. Sets higher suspicions lie on Riku and Crazy.
That's well and dandy Sets, you can read. How does this mean anything?
Well anonymous ROMS reader, I'm glad you asked! It makes sense for no one to ban Crazymg, unsurprisingly, she isn't banned. It doesn't make sense to ban someone you're suspicious of going into the last Day where as a rogue you will be 1 vs 2.
Leif would rather ban Riku over Sets or Crazy, however he's dead now so I think we can say he was probably innocent. Maybe.
Riku has expressed a waffling suspicion on Crazy and some suspicion on Leif. Very little on Sets. This is similar to Leif's case. Riku should ban Sets because Leif likes Riku and they're mutually suspicious of Crazymg.
Crazymg has expressed suspicion of Sets and Leif, but much more on Sets. She should ban Riku or Leif.
Sets has expressed suspicion on Crazy and Riku more than Leif, Sets should also ban Riku or Leif. Similarly to Riku, Leif stated he thinks I'm innocent and we're mutually suspicious of Crazymg,
Now, this comes to the same conclusion as Riku. Crazymg and Sets should be banning the same people last night. However, if we take the probability of hidden suspicion into consideration this result will change drastically.
Because Leif has expressed little suspicion of either Riku or Sets, Riku little of Sets and Sets little of Leif it is likely that they have suspicions in these places because all three of these players typically don't show their full suspicions and can't afford to in a game of this size. According to Crazy's posts last Night, she is the same but because of how sole focused she was I'm not sure how to determine whether she would be more suspicious of Leif who she had mentioned, or Riku who she hardly had.
That said, with this in mind it can be expected that both Riku and Leif have suspicion on Sets, and with Crazy's mostly sole focus on Sets we can assume she has legitimate suspicion there.
Sets and Crazy likely have suspicion on Leif.
Sets and Leif have suspicion on Riku and Crazy maybe does, but definitely less so than Sets or Leif.
Where does this lead us?
The correct move for Rogue Riku is to ban Leif. He eliminates Sets and Crazy's more likely unknown suspicion and has Sets and Crazy looking at each other. This is an optimal Rogue 1v2 situation.
The correct move for Crazymg is hard to discern due to her amount of output in this game. I think an argument could be made that she would be fine banning any three of the other players, but should have preference to Riku and Leif over Sets to preserve her suspicion.
The correct move for Sets is to ban no one. Banning Leif gives Crazy single focus on Sets and leaves Riku with his most likely unknown suspicion on Sets, as well as leaving him questioning how likely it is Crazy would ban Leif over him when she hasn't talked about him much. This can be argued either way with WIFOM. Banning Crazymg leaves Riku and Leif, both of whom are likely to be just as suspicious of Sets as each other and therefore would be an unsafe situation. Banning Riku is also a poor decision as it leaves Crazymg who is focused on Sets and Leif, who although asking some questions of Crazymg during the Night and expressing some concern there also is likely to be suspicious of Sets. Another unsafe situation. Therefore, banning no one is better for a rogue Sets as this leaves me in a 1v3 scenario where with this game's voting rules all three innocents would have to vote me for me to lose the game this Day, which with the game's landscape pre-ban is unlikely to happen because it is less likely for unknown suspicions to come out when there is no change in information. Also, if a ban is missed it is generally perceived as a rogue forgetting to ban since this is vanilla and the person most likely to do that based on content is Crazymg, who Riku, Sets and Leif have expressed suspicion on. This would lead to a likely lynch of Crazymg and a victory for a rogue Sets.
Leif was banned. Riku becomes my highest suspicion.
Upon reflection of the thread and rereading of the Riku-Joly discussion which I initially agreed with Riku in, I notice that a lot of what Joly said was true. Riku pretty much jumped on the first person to make a declaration of actual suspicion. Not only this, but after gunning at Jolyma for most of the Day he then decides to vote Crazymg because Jolyma's stated last post of the Day didn't seem like a post from a rogue that was most likely to be lynched, however two minutes later he switches his vote to Jolyma because it doesn't make sense for Crazymg to ban Yasmi. Essentially, Riku has just said he thinks Jolyma is unlikely to be rogue, not voted her and then immediately voted her. This leaves the impression that he didn't find her "that" suspicious (which he had said before, that she was suspicious but not THAT suspicious) but he wanted a lynch. He got one, and she was innocent. My stance is that lynching early in these small games is more pro rogue than pro town. I know some of you disagree with me on this.
With this in mind, Riku seems like a clever rogue to me while Crazymg seems too disinterested in this game to be the rogue. If she's played it this way as a rogue that'd be pretty annoying as there's not a whole lot to get an impression of her.
Vote: Riku
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Post by Crazy Mg on Jul 8, 2013 15:30:30 GMT -8
So i came to the conclusion the other night that is Riku is around today he is most likely rogue. (was also 5am logic so I needed time to fully work it out)
(That's why I didn't want to express my suspicions during the night in case Riku was not the Rouge and was kept alive soley for the purpose of me to vote him instead of the actual rogue)
Anyway, my thinking on different scenarios and likely outcomes based on known suspicions. Riku's post altered some of this.
1. Riku bans Leif Mg votes Sets over Riku Sets votes Mg over Riku Riku was meant to vote Mg over Sets.
2. Riku bans Sets Mg votes Leif over Riku Leif votes Mg over Riku Riku seemed to go either way
3. Sets bans Leif Mg votes Sets over Riku Sets votes Mg over Riku Riku again was meant to vote Mg over sets
4. Sets bans Riku Mg votes Sets over Leif (but changed during night) Leif votes Mg over Sets Sets votes Mg over Leif
1 or 3 is what we have now, hard to tell which, but comparing them to other options, 1 and 2 seem equally likely, but for a rouge Sets, 4 would be the better choice, I had expressed no suspicion on Riku at all and Myself being their first choice and each others last choice giving a pretty much guaranteed Mg Lynch.
I'm not sure why Riku just changed his mind over Sets and I, but I really don't see why RougeSets would ban Leif over Riku. I also hadn't thought much about a missed ban.
Vote:Riku
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Jul 9, 2013 3:35:53 GMT -8
Well, looks like that's it (and I remembered the deadline this time). Vote Totals: Setsusa: 1 (Riku) Riku: 2 (Setsusa, Crazymg) So Riku is lynched. Since he was innocent, that means that the rogue has won. I will leave the rogue to reveal his/her own identity. Good game, guys.
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Post by Setsusa on Jul 9, 2013 3:48:25 GMT -8
"I didn't do what I should have done as a rogue therefore I am not the rogue". Valid rogue strategy.
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Post by Crazy Mg on Jul 9, 2013 3:57:12 GMT -8
I was right not to trust no gut reaction from you. darn.
Good game.
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Post by Setsusa on Jul 9, 2013 4:14:48 GMT -8
The funny thing is everything I said in that post is true, I made the wrong play for rogue me there.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Jul 9, 2013 5:40:23 GMT -8
Watching him realise this - and then decide to use it - was pretty funny.
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Post by Jolyma on Jul 9, 2013 8:02:58 GMT -8
Actually, I realised yesterday afternoon the rogue had to be Sets. Why? Because he was only presenting half of all of his logical conclusions, and ignored any other possibilities that could be valid. He always considers the other side when he's innocent. Too bad you all lynched me
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Post by Setsusa on Jul 9, 2013 8:18:59 GMT -8
Sets rogue tells: not enough convoluted logic presented in a way that makes it seem like a lot of tldr BS, gg Jolyma.
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Post by yasmi on Jul 9, 2013 9:15:40 GMT -8
bad bad rogue sets thats all i thought when i got banned
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Post by Riku on Jul 9, 2013 14:53:08 GMT -8
Sorry for abandoning you to fend for yourself, Crazy Unfortunate timing on that, although I don't know if I could have convinced you otherwise had I been here anyway. Well played, Sets, I didn't realize it was you until it was too late.
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Post by Jolyma on Jul 9, 2013 18:44:48 GMT -8
Sets rogue tells: not enough convoluted logic presented in a way that makes it seem like a lot of tldr BS, gg Jolyma. Pretty much It was the whole 'vocal people would be the only ones who'd have a reason to ban Yasmi' thing, without considering that she was the only one with NO info in the thread, with Crazy a close second, and Leif not far behind. I just wish I'd have seen it sooner. I basically applied the right answer to the wrong person pushing it.
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