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Post by Bunnylaroo on Oct 10, 2013 18:47:34 GMT -8
Welp, I fully intended to do some re-reads, but energy level is at a zero so sorry folks. I keep saying that, and I wish it wasn't true, but there it is. I'm pretty convinced riku is the last rogue, so I'm keeping my vote there. Obviously if I'm wrong, I need to re-evaluate. Majorly. Exactly. Normally you would agree, but in the context of the game you wouldn't. Tae was looking at the normally. The point of my cute little analogy was that it's much easier for innocents to see the "context of the game" than it is for rogues. I'm not arguing that Tae isn't wily enough to be able to do that. I'm arguing that she thought that would be too suspicious to do. I know it doesn't make perfect sense, but I don't know why Tae didn't vote me either, and this is the best explanation I can come up with. Honestly, I do think she probably didn't see Leif's vote, and so the hammer-vote option wasn't even available to her. I guess I just disagree that Rogue Tae would be unable to see the context of the game and realize the attention her actions would draw. @wrecker - hope you feel better soon. But Joly: However, to borrow your analogy, the things that Scares Me Most, is that Tae has been at the School of ROMS a long time, and may be using that Thing That Rogues Do to set you up, but I am not sure the benefit of that outweighs the consequences. But I think that she could have saved herself the Day she was lynched by agreeing to help the town get information, and I think she's smart enough to know that.What? Tae did vote for Riku the day she was lynched, didn't she? So I don't understand what you're saying here.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 10, 2013 19:20:38 GMT -8
Thanks Bunny. Likewise... I hope things get less hectic for you soon.
I guess what I didn't think about is that for both you and Joly, the cases you had on taelac hinged on Riku being a rogue. We'll see in like three hours I guess =P
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Post by Jolyma on Oct 10, 2013 19:35:39 GMT -8
Sorry Bunny, I worded that poorly. I meant that she'd have saved herself from being lynched when she was if she had chosen to vote Riku out before.
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Post by Jolyma on Oct 10, 2013 19:36:59 GMT -8
Thanks Bunny. Likewise... I hope things get less hectic for you soon. I guess what I didn't think about is that for both you and Joly, the cases you had on taelac hinged on Riku being a rogue. We'll see in like three hours I guess =P And yes, Wrecker, a lot of my case on Taelac only worked if Riku was a rogue. Although a Marinated-Taelac pair was a possibility, it wasn't highly likely in my mind, because of my belief that Riku was a rogue and Marinated's reaction to my switch to Firebolt.
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Post by Riku on Oct 10, 2013 19:37:20 GMT -8
Well, whichever two of you are left toMorrow had better lynch Marinated, then.
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Post by Riku on Oct 10, 2013 22:29:55 GMT -8
Dear Marinated:
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Oct 10, 2013 22:32:55 GMT -8
End of Day 6.
Riku: 3 (Marinated, Bunnylaroo, Jolyma) Marinated: 2 (wrecker15, Riku)
Required for 50%+1: 3
So Riku is lynched.
The game is not over. (He was innocent.)
Day 7 will begin on October 11th at 5:30pm PDT. (Or at 1:30am on October 12th, BST.)
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 10, 2013 22:33:00 GMT -8
*snrk*
I'll give points for style, regardless of status.
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Post by Riku on Oct 10, 2013 22:34:27 GMT -8
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 10, 2013 23:10:06 GMT -8
My Ladies,
I do not deny that I am somewhat saddened by the fact that Sage Riku has left us. However, I do understand the grievances that some of you had with him, and hope that these misunderstandings have now been cleared up.
I do intend to honour his last wishes should I still be present toMorrow. These are dark times, and while I fully expect to be around come dawn, I do not think others will be so lucky. I do urge Lady Joly and Master Bunny to take the look back that they have promised to do on account of Lord Riku being innocent, and hope that it will be fruitful.
[I thought I might as well as get some RP in now =P
I should probably state it plainly here that I'm pretty sure I'll make it through the Night because Marinated needs to vote me toMorrow, but whichever of Bunny/Joly that survives, I hope you'll read back and come to your own conclusion. I have no intention of changing my vote, so one of you will have the hammer vote.
Also, I know what it feels like to be wrong, I hope you don't think I'm trying to rub it in or anything. I was kidding about the 'I told you so' bit =)]
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 10, 2013 23:12:23 GMT -8
Dammit I forgot Marinated and Bunny were both RPing guys so there are technically still guys playing. Haha. Sorry.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Oct 11, 2013 6:38:39 GMT -8
argh. Looks like I've got some re-reading and re-thinking to do.
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Post by Marinated on Oct 11, 2013 6:49:17 GMT -8
* tap tap tap tap tap *
The events of the last Day were churning over in his mind as he typed up today's news for his paper. Then he would make some notes on this strange affair. He hadn't done it earlier as he had half hoped that maybe his previous thoughts had been correct and the wizard proving to be rogue would save him the effort but it was not to be. There! That was done. A wave to attract a messenger then the copy was on it's way to the editor.
As he put a fresh sheet of paper in his typewriter he could feel a cat staring at him unblinkingly. He wished the cat would look elsewhere, but then he believed that this particular puss knew the answers already. All he had to do was find the proof. Maybe it was time for... He shook his head. Not yet, the footwork still had to be done first.
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Post by Jolyma on Oct 11, 2013 14:24:48 GMT -8
Well, Wrecker, you at the very least earned your 'I told you so' on Riku anyways.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 11, 2013 15:58:04 GMT -8
It's more that I didn't have a case that hinged on Riku being a rogue and so overlooked all the suspicion and followed a gut call.
If you have anything to say before morning you should probably say it now, cause the ban is probably going to be one of you or Bunny.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Oct 11, 2013 16:33:41 GMT -8
This is the morning of the seventh Day. But you don't get to rest.
So Jolyma is banned.
There are three players remaining. You require two votes for one person to secure their lynch. The next (and last) lynch deadline will be 5:30pm PDT on October 14th. (Or 1:30am on the 15th, for me.)
One Day Remains. Let's see how you use it.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 11, 2013 17:15:20 GMT -8
Doop de doo.
Vote: Marinated
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Post by Jolyma on Oct 11, 2013 18:15:57 GMT -8
*Jolyma comes to on the Isle of Limes*
Hmm. Here again. Ah well, I guess now I can rejoin Garion and the others and finish that epic quest.
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Post by Marinated on Oct 12, 2013 0:25:13 GMT -8
*Jolyma comes to on the Isle of Limes*
Hmm. Here again. Ah well, I guess now I can rejoin Garion and the others and finish that epic quest. Liselle I presume? I wondered if it was those books because they were the only ones I could think of with a eunuch and a pregnant snake but I couldn't think how the uncle fitted in at first.
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Post by Jolyma on Oct 12, 2013 8:45:44 GMT -8
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Oct 12, 2013 14:18:07 GMT -8
I'm currently reviewing both of you guys' interactions with Tae, but while I'm in the middle of that I do have a question for Marinated: Why did you vote for Tae at all on Day 5? You've explained that Riku was your first suspicion, and I understand that. I also understand why you wouldn't switch just because Wrecker kept pushing you to. In this post you explain that you weren't around earlier to switch. Then here you say you would have stayed on Riku if the voting rules weren't majority lynch. But at that point there were 5 votes on Tae. Leif's vote happened at 9:23PM PST, which was a just about 8 hours before deadline and 7.5 hours before your vote. We needed 4 votes for the majority lynch. So your switch was pretty unnecessary, even from the standpoint of "securing the lynch". I'm confused as to why you switched at all.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 12, 2013 16:03:26 GMT -8
That is... One of the things I've been trying to point out.
But either way, I should probably say it plainly, but I'm done. I did all the convincing I had to do yesterDay, and all that's left is for Bunny to do her re-read and come to her own conclusions.
I have considered the possibility of being wrong, but I figured that if I am and Bunny is the rogue, the town likely doesn't deserve to win anyway because that would mean fully half of the theories of the voters on Taelac were based off wrong theories. Not to mention my own theory goes by 'If Tae is a rogue, Marinated is a rogue'. By considering how hard it was to let go of 'If Taelac is a rogue, Riku is a rogue' suspicions, you'll probably know why I am refusing to let go here.
So yeah. Bunny, if you have any specific queries, I'll be around. Other than that, I hope you'll have the time to read and figure things out.
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Post by Marinated on Oct 12, 2013 16:23:09 GMT -8
@ Bunny:
No, it wasn't necessary by that time but I had been intending to change earlier to ensure the lynch so I did so anyway. Besides which, when I did that voting analysis I suddenly had a very vague memory of something from another game, which I still haven't been able to pin down, but which made me more certain.
I haven't had a chance today to get my thoughts on Wrecker together but I should be able to do that tomorrow morning and then I shall take another look at you. I did that a few days ago and came up with nothing apart from the voting connection but Wrecker mentioned a couple of things I need to check out.
My problem is that despite what I spotted yesterday, I'm still seeing Wrecker as frustrated innocent which leaves me with a feeling, and it's not even a gut feeling, more a presentiment, that you may be the rogue.
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Post by Marinated on Oct 13, 2013 5:14:00 GMT -8
The following quotes show that Wrecker was continually claiming that several people were suspicious of Taelac: but when I suggested in post 453 that she could be bussing Tae Wrecker immediately changed her tune, insisting that only she and I had been suspicious of Tae: Also, why are you adamant on painting things a different picture than they actually were? The *only* people who had Taelac up there on their FoS lists the Day after that vote were you and me. Compare that with the 3-4 FoS on Riku and I don't know where you got 'she was likely going to be lynched on Day 4'. When I queried this she first tried to claim that attention and suspicion were different (post 471), but the above quotes imply she was using them to mean the same thing. Then in 491 she says she doesn't have an explanation but four minutes later she gives one, saying it was due to a reread and accuses me of a desperate play. The way I see it is this: When the fuss about Tae missing Leif's vote came up Tae and her partner thought there was a good chance that she would be lynched (and she quite likely would have been if it wasn't for Firebolt not voting Riku when she could have done), they decided to go for the FoI. I think it may have been this mindset that made Wrecker overlook the fact that it was Riku and Firebolt that were getting the attention, rather than Tae.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Oct 13, 2013 10:15:43 GMT -8
After reading many, many words, here are my thoughts: First indication of suspicion of Tae (from anyone, really, other than the Tae/Joly dustup) came way back on Day 2, where Marinated said she had a gut feeling on a rogue Tae, but lists Riku and Leif as her top suspects and votes Leif. On Day 3 in This post Marinated votes for Tae. She was the only vote on Tae at the time, and voted for Riku approaching deadline in an attempt to secure a lynch. Day 3 is when Tae didn't hammer Riku. This drew immediate attention from Wrecker. Now, in Marinated's most recent post she quoted Wrecker as saying that many people were suspicious of Tae during Night 3 Aside from Wrecker, we have: Crazy saying she'd rather lynch Tae over Riku due to the "missed Leif's post" argument. Marinated questioning the same. Then as Day 4 began: Joly, although voting for Riku, is bothered by tae's vote (or Tae's not switching I guess) Me suspicious of Tae's argument against wrecker and the fact that she didn't vote riku for information. Riku becoming slightly, and in the following post significantly, suspicious of Tae based on the fact that she "didn't see the case on him". So the way I'm reading what happened that day, there was certainly attention on Tae (along with Riku and Firebolt). It's actually pretty accurate to say that Marinated and Wrecker were the only two with "FoS" on Tae because...you're kind of the only two who were posting FoS lists. I don't do that because it doesn't work for me. My suspicions are pretty fluid depending on what happens during the game, and it should be obvious from my questions whom I'm suspicious of. And in this post, Marinated is less inclined to vote for Tae because "that's still partly a gut feeling". But why was gut sufficient to vote her on Day 3, when no one else was, yet not sufficient on Day 4, when there was already a vote there. Noteworthy (although I am also guilty of this) is that if Firebolt had switched to Tae, and then Marinated and I also switched, we could have lynched her Day 4. I was not mentally capable of realizing that fact at the time, and honestly, would have done whatever anyone told me to do, but it is of interest to me now. I guess this is what wrecker was talking about by "refusal to switch"? I was focusing on Day 5, when Marinated didn't switch to Tae until the end of the Day, not on Day 4. So here's the summary of what I've found Marinated- Was one of the first to indicate suspicion of Tae, and the first to vote for her (on Day 3 - a singleton vote) - Backed off from voting Tae because she "preferred a lynch on Riku" Day 4 and 5, when more people were willing to vote/ actually voting Tae. - Says she was "always willing to switch" but didn't actually switch until there was really no point in switching at all. I still don't see the point in switching, unless it was "gee it will look bad if I'm the only one not on Tae once Tae flips rogue". Wrecker-Started out with an innocent read on Tae - Was the first to question Tae's Day 3 actions, and was very vocally in favor of a lynch on Tae from that point until she was actually lynched. - Claimed to have "pushed the lynch on Tae" afterwards. Banning Joly doesn't seem like the safe thing for Marinated to do - I would have expected a rogue Marinated to ban Wrecker, since Wrecker has been pretty adamant about wanting to lynch Marinated. But I would expect a rogue Wrecker to ban me over Joly, because Joly pretty much said "We'll do it your way tomorrow Wrecker." After mulling it over, I can't see Rogue Wrecker. Like at all. I mean, I guess if I was going to bus my partner, I'd want everyone to be sure that I was driving that bus, which is why I thought it odd that Wrecker seemed (to me) to be taking credit for the lynch on Tae. But then again, there was virtually no suspicion on Tae prior to Night 3, and wrecker was the first to bring up Tae's "missing Leif's post" then, so I don't think "preempting other people's suspicions on Tae" would be the rogue team's course of action in that situation. I think my suspicion of riku really clouded my judgement on Marinated, mostly because I agreed with her about wanting to lynch Riku first. While she was the first to indicate gut suspicion on Tae, and vote for Tae, her subsequent behavior when Tae was actually in danger makes the initial suspicion look like distancing. So yes, wrecker, I can finally see where you're coming from. Vote: MarinatedWrecker, if you're the rogue, you played an outstandingly cutthroat game.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 13, 2013 17:32:15 GMT -8
Oh, I had several thoughts about the ban, but felt it was unnecessary to post because I would rather you relied on the evidence already in the thread than my speculations and guesswork.
I guess what's left now is to wait for the reveal.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 13, 2013 17:34:20 GMT -8
And FoS lists can change a lot, I tend to post lists for my reference when I am re-reading the thread. It's useful because I don't have to read through my entire post to find my FoS at the time, to recall exactly what I'd been thinking. It is more of a convenience thing and a habit for me, I guess.
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Post by Marinated on Oct 13, 2013 18:24:50 GMT -8
Bunny: I think you missed my point about how many people were suspicious of Tae at the beginning of Day 4. It wasn't so much how few or many there were but rather it was how Wrecker abruptly changed her postion on it when I suggested she might be bussing Tae, first denying any change, then saying it was due to a reread, and finally saying it was a mistake. And in this post, Marinated is less inclined to vote for Tae because "that's still partly a gut feeling". But why was gut sufficient to vote her on Day 3, when no one else was, yet not sufficient on Day 4, when there was already a vote there. It was sufficient on Day three because there was little else to go on at the time. It wasn't sufficient on Day four because stuff had happened. I'm a little surprised you even have to ask this. Noteworthy (although I am also guilty of this) is that if Firebolt had switched to Tae, and then Marinated and I also switched, we could have lynched her Day 4. I was not mentally capable of realizing that fact at the time, and honestly, would have done whatever anyone told me to do, but it is of interest to me now. Why is this of interest to you now? - Backed off from voting Tae because she "preferred a lynch on Riku" Day 4 and 5, when more people were willing to vote/ actually voting Tae. There were clearly not more people willing to vote Tae on Day 4, or she would have been lynched then. - Says she was "always willing to switch" but didn't actually switch until there was really no point in switching at all. I still don't see the point in switching, unless it was "gee it will look bad if I'm the only one not on Tae once Tae flips rogue". Do you really think I'm that stupid? Or are you just trying to make me look bad. But I would expect a rogue Wrecker to ban me over Joly, because Joly pretty much said "We'll do it your way tomorrow Wrecker." Why would she do that? There was little or no suspicion on Joly so banning you would mean it was just between the two of us and I'm pretty sure Joly would have been willing to consider both sides. That would have made it more risky for Wrecker. Anyway, I've had another look through all your posts and I still can't find anything which really points at you being a rogue until this last post where the tone feels all wrong. It just looks like you're taking Wrecker's points against me and using them to justify voting me. So I was going to go with that together with my gut feeling that Wrecker is innocent, plus my original voting analysis which showed that you were the most likely, after Riku, to be Tae's partner. But the following comment made me think again: But then again, there was virtually no suspicion on Tae prior to Night 3, and wrecker was the first to bring up Tae's "missing Leif's post" then, so I don't think "preempting other people's suspicions on Tae" would be the rogue team's course of action in that situation. I seemed to remember that it was Tae herself who was the first to mention it so I went back to have another look. Yes, it was Tae, but what was more interesting was the timings. In post 202 Tae said she saw Furare's post showing Leif's vote on her third refresh then scrolled up to see his post, but it wasn't until an hour after the deadline that she mentioned it in the thread, just a few minutes before Wrecker posted her 180 degree flip on Tae. The closeness of the two posts makes it clear that Wrecker had been typing hers before Tae posted but was it pure coincidence? Or had Wrecker and Tae been using that time to discuss what action they should take? I'm going to sleep on it and have another think in the morning. @ Wrecker: If you're not the rogue then please take another look at Bunny.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 13, 2013 18:35:41 GMT -8
I have been looking. I have re-read the whole thread several times, plus one game where you were innocent (one of the small ones), XIII, and about half of the game where bunny was a rogue, to see if there is any chance that I may be wrong. I have analyzed this game from the standpoint of innocent bunny, rogue bunny, innocent marinated, rogue marinated, and for the lulz, rogue wrecker.
But my conclusion as of now has not changed, which is why I'm not bothering to post. If it does I will, but if my conclusion doesn't change I don't really see the need to, because like I said, all the convincing I wanted to do had taken place yesterday and today, all that's left is to follow up my feeling with my vote.
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Post by wrecker15 on Oct 13, 2013 18:42:36 GMT -8
Also, since this topic is here, if I were a rogue my top ban choice would be marinated, not one of Joly or Bunny. As a rogue, pigeon holing myself into voting one person on the last day is not a good idea. Given my conviction over the past few Days, the only option I have left myself is 'vote marinated'. Having said that, I would be giving the vote hammer to an innocent, with no idea how that would play out. I would much rather ban my top suspicion as a rogue and have a clean slate to start off, then turn Joly and Bunny against each other.
I feel like a Joly ban is beneficial for both a rogue bunny or a rogue marinated, but eh. Earlier convictions led me to my vote for toDay.
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