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Post by yasmi on May 5, 2013 9:24:00 GMT -8
I m sorry I was ment to change vote but i fell asleep.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on May 5, 2013 10:03:09 GMT -8
And now for Day 3. Yasmi is banned. Your next lynch deadline is 11am Pacific on Tuesday 7th May. You require 2 votes to get a lynch.
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Post by Marinated on May 5, 2013 10:35:28 GMT -8
"I Tawt I Taw A Puddy Tat"!
But who is playing Sylvester?
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Post by Riku on May 5, 2013 11:32:16 GMT -8
Well, that wasn't really the ban I would have expected, but I don't think that really makes a difference at this point, it could have been simply intended to throw us off.
The wording of this post right here solidified my suspicion. Yasmi had already said that she wasn't suspicious of Sets anymore and it was between Marinated and Joly, and had in fact already said that she was planning to switch off Sets. The one who made Yasmi think that Sets was pigeon was Sets himself, yet Marinated tells her not to let me convince her to switch her votes. I think this betrays her actual thought process: if she actually thought Sets were the Cat, she would have told Yasmi to not let Sets convince her. She didn't seem worried about that at all -- she was worried about the vote switch, and her getting lynched, and so she told Yasmi not to let /me/ convince her, when what I did was ask her if she was going to vote based on her newfound suspicions, rather than persuade her to switch her position. She didn't care about Sets being manipulative, because she knew he wasn't the Cat. She cared about not getting lynched.
Actually, now that I think about it, a Yasmi ban from Marinated does make sense, because Yasmi was planning on voting her yesterDay and so probably would have toDay.
Vote: Marinated
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Post by Marinated on May 5, 2013 12:28:22 GMT -8
Maybe I should have said encourage rather than persuade, but I was half asleep at the time. And it was definitely you, not Sets, who was pushing her to change. And yes, of course I cared about not getting lynched. All I wanted at that point was for Yasmi to leave her vote where it was.
I've been trying to work out who would most benefit from Yasmi's ban but that just keeps leading to a whole mess of WIFOM as I can see how it can go either way so I'm going to leave it for the moment, but I see Riku is using it to try to pin the blame on me, which makes me think it might have been him that did it in order to do that. See what I mean with the WIFOM?
While I was looking at the possible reasons for the ban I noticed that Jolyma said nothing at all about Cala's ban which is very unusual for her. Enough to make me want to know why.
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Post by Jolyma on May 5, 2013 16:45:04 GMT -8
What was there to be said Marinated? That she hadn't said anything other than she wouldn't be here because of a medical procedure? It wasn't exactly surprising though, a rogue who would have to pull off 2 bans would want the least amount of information out there after the first one, making Yasmi and Cala the two highest likely to see as a Night 1 ban.
I've commented on bans in past games, I've not commented on bans. It seems that no matter which I choose, someone says I usually do the opposite. In this case though, it wasn't that there was a choice, it was just that there was nothing really there to say. I see you less likely to ban Cala first round in most situations, but this isn't really most situations.
The banning of Yasmi is surprising, since I think she may have been lynchable. However, her indecisiveness and waffling makes it hard to figure who benefits the most from it.
One of you two is the rogue. I just have to figure out which of you thinks that by banning the person I was already looking at next, it means I'll vote for the other, and cause a loss.
At this moment, I'm thinking that would benefit Riku the most. I've said that I felt his pushing was genuinely town in Day 1 and stuck to that. The problem is, I've also said I felt Marinated was town, albeit not as strongly. Then there is always the Sicilian in the background, wondering if my thoughts were anticipated, and I should vote for the less obvious.
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Post by Marinated on May 6, 2013 10:11:45 GMT -8
I thought you might have commented on the fact that Cala hadn't had a chance to play much recently, apart from the last game where she was a rogue, but as this is only a very short game I guess that's not really such a concern here. It just seemed odd that you said nothing. One of you two is the rogue. I just have to figure out which of you thinks that by banning the person I was already looking at next, it means I'll vote for the other, and cause a loss. The problem I see here is that if either Riku or I had banned Yasmi neither of us would know which way you would turn next, so it would be risky from that point of view. You might have banned her hoping I would continue to suspect Riku and that Riku would continue to suspect me based on Yasmi's suspicion of me in addition to his previous postion, which it seems he has done but whether that's as a result of the ban or whether he is setting me up I don't know. Riku might have banned her thinking you and I would suspect each other for it as we were the ones she was most suspicious of at the end of the Day. No conclusions yet; I need to think about this some more.
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Post by Jolyma on May 6, 2013 10:47:42 GMT -8
Sadly, I expected the ban Day 1 to be Cala or Yasmi. In such a small game, with 2 bans being the only source of information, I figured that the bans would be to give as little information as possible.
Yasmi was more of a surprise. She was a little more vocal Day 2, and her behavior, as I noted during the Night, made me think twice about her. Again. It puts me in a place where I'm trying to think which of you two it benefitted from that, because I was pretty plain that that was where I was looking next.
She was leaning towards innocent Riku, so at face value, he wouldn't ban her. But then, he could think that, as a rogue, banning his ally would make people think that it couldn't be him...
She was suspicious of Marinated, and so banning her would ease some of that on Marinated, were she a rogue, but then, it's easy to set that up if it's Riku the rogue...
I don't see Marinated banning Cala first Day, but it seems like she was expecting that sort of argument from me, which, yes, can be a standard one, but Cala lived to the end of last game.
Circles. Circles, circles everywhere, and not a thread to find.
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Post by Riku on May 6, 2013 16:08:58 GMT -8
...Huh.
I hate when you get to that point of endgame when you start to doubt yourself. Sometimes it's unhealthy. But this time... the more I think about it, the less a Yasmi ban makes sense coming from Marinated. Marinated knew I was suspicious of her, so why ban the person that points directly to her, leaving Jolyma who was, albeit only slightly, less suspicious of me than Marinated? Yasmi was suspicious of her, sure, but yesterDay, Yasmi showed that her opinions could change pretty quickly. Besides, there's the advantage that Joly gets from banning Yasmi. I'm suspicious of Marinated, Marinated is suspicious of me, whereas Joly bans her main suspicion and is thus left with a clean slate and can sit back and watch -- which is exactly what she's done. Her most recent post especially seemed a little too much of "Oh, I don't know what to do!" which, although is certainly understandable for Joly the pigeon, is very beneficial for Joly the cat.
Sorry for the kind of stream-of-consciousness post, but I only had a few minutes and wanted to get my thoughts out. I'll be back in a bit.
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Post by Riku on May 6, 2013 16:10:52 GMT -8
Of course, suspecting based entirely on the ban is dangerous, because of the multiple layers of WIFOM that you have to peel back, so I'm trying to avoid that and gauge more who would /say/ what as a cat or a pigeon. Day 2 that led me to think Marinated, but now I think I may have been wrong.
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Post by Jolyma on May 6, 2013 17:48:32 GMT -8
I think all 3 of us are posting stream of consciousness thoughts right now. I also think that you're being unfair to point out my indecision, while ignoring Marinated's and being indecisive yourself.
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Post by Jolyma on May 6, 2013 17:50:47 GMT -8
Vote: Riku
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Post by Riku on May 6, 2013 18:08:00 GMT -8
It's not the fact that it is indecisiveness, it's the tone and the context of the indecisiveness. And I'm pretty sure I already said that the Yasmi ban would presumably make me and Marinated vote each other and leave you to sit and wait -- hence me pointing out the indecisiveness, and why it's notable.
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Post by Jolyma on May 6, 2013 19:07:23 GMT -8
I'm not sure why it's any more notable for me to be indecisive than it is for either of you. It's pretty much one rogue and two innocents, with very little to go on. How can you say it's suspicious for me to be thinking out loud, but not for Marinated or for you to do the very same thing? Why would you voting her, and her voting you and me being as confused as to which one of you set it up be notable?
I also don't believe that anything is certain in such a small game, so why would you think that a Yasmi ban would make you and Marinated behave in such a way, unless you had it all planned out beforehand?
In other words, I just don't see your point. If all three of us are basically going in a very similar circle in the thread, how can you say it's suspicious for one, and not the others? What else am I supposed to do, other than point out the things that I can see, and hope to see if there is extra light shed on the subject? Just sit here and not talk? How will that help?
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Post by Riku on May 6, 2013 20:11:06 GMT -8
You're ignoring what I'm saying, and saying that I'm saying things I'm not.
I guess one way to put it is that, at least how I saw it, Marinated and I were being indecisive, but in an active manner. You were being indecisive in a passive manner. That's what I mean by the sitting back and letting it happen.
Now, if I were a rogue in your situation yesterDay, where A is suspicious of B, and B is suspicious of A, and C is suspicious of A, and I'm suspicious of C, banning C is the best option. Banning A or B would be pointless, because that unlocks the debate that they're in and gives them room to turn and look elsewhere. With a ban on C, B and A are still suspicious of each other, and now, having not really expressed suspicion on either B or A, the rogue can sit and wait and be passive and let the game play out. My point is, that's exactly what it looks like you've done, and by calling you out on it, I forced you into making a choice. And you did.
However, if I were a rogue in Marinated's situation, where I'm suspicious of B, B is suspicious of me, C is suspicious of me, and D is suspicious of C, banning C is probably the worst choice. It wouldn't look like a setup (which it would with a ban on D), and there'd be one person left suspicious of me and one person who has no opinion(as opposed to one suspicious of me and one suspicious of C, which would come with a ban on B) . I voted Marinated partly to gauge her reaction: On the offchance she did ban Yasmi and was the rogue, I would have expected her to either retreat completely and be passive or go fully aggressive and vote. She did neither.
What's my point? My point is, you've done almost exactly what I'd expect rogue Jolyma to do in this situation, and Marinated has done almost the opposite of what I'd expect rogue Marinated to do in this situation.
Unvote: Marinated Vote: Jolyma
Now, due to the whole possibility for the rogue anticipating what people will think and acting accordingly... I'm still not sure. But I'm more sure of you than I am of Marinated.
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Post by Riku on May 7, 2013 5:41:20 GMT -8
...Then again, if Marinated is rogue and just doesn't show up, she wins unless we both vote her.
I'm going to have limited access to the thread until deadline, but hopefully I can get back on.
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Post by Jolyma on May 7, 2013 6:12:01 GMT -8
How was I being passive and letting things happen? If I wanted to do that, I'd just not post. I am not ignoring you, or misstating you, I just don't understand how you've come to the conclusion that you have. I'm NOT doing what you're claiming, and you saying that I am is just not true. Marinated did the exact same thing. "I don't know what to think. Here is what is spinning around." You did the exact same thing. The one thing you did do that we didn't is vote earlier than I did. How is it passive for me, but active for you and Marinated to say, "I just don't know, here is what I am thinking" I don't get that argument AT ALL. I think I made it clear that I intended to vote for Yasmi toDay. Why on earth would I want to take that away if I was the rogue? That would be way easier than hoping one of you two wouldn't vote me. By the rogue banning Yasmi, I ended up confused because I was pretty sure she was it. And instead of wanting me to actually think things through, you try to add pressure to me to pick one.
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Post by Marinated on May 7, 2013 6:21:30 GMT -8
I'm around, and will be around on and off for the rest of the Day. It's just that I keep second guessing myself but I think I know where I'm heading now. I just need to find a few minutes peace and quiet here to get my thoughts straight.
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Post by Jolyma on May 7, 2013 7:45:12 GMT -8
Augh! Now I'm wondering about the fact that deadline is in just over 2 hours, and Marinated hasn't voted yet I help with math class this afternoon too, so I can't be sure that I will be home!
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Post by Jolyma on May 7, 2013 7:46:11 GMT -8
This sucks. I can see a case for either one to be a rogue.
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Post by Jolyma on May 7, 2013 7:47:15 GMT -8
Ah well, I rolled the dice. With luck, I will be back in time, it depends on if the kids have earned an extra recess or not.
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Post by Marinated on May 7, 2013 8:54:45 GMT -8
Vote: Jolyma
What first shook my original intention to follow through with my suspicion of Riku was Jolyma's post 59, which when taken in conjunction with Yasmi's ban looked a bit JMTish, and which made me think again about Cala's ban. When I said earlier that I didn't think that Jolyma would ban her I hadn't taken into account how that might have been affected by the shortness of the game. I think it's possible that the ban may not have been random but may have been from concern about Cala's ability to spot rogues, which would point more at older players as Cala hasn't played much recently (not counting last game where she was a rogue). It occurred to me that the reason why Jolyma hadn't commented on it at the time may be because she felt bad about banning her.
In post 65 Jolyma said " I just have to figure out which of you thinks that by banning the person I was already looking at next, it means I'll vote for the other, and cause a loss.". This gives me the impression that she's thinking more of what we think of her, than what we think of each other. It's a very subtle thing but it's there.
In post 76 Jolyma said "I think I made it clear that I intended to vote for Yasmi toDay. Why on earth would I want to take that away if I was the rogue? That would be way easier than hoping one of you two wouldn't vote me. By the rogue banning Yasmi, I ended up confused because I was pretty sure she was it.".The answer to the "why" would be "So that you could say this." It's pure WIFOM. If you were innocent you wouldn't have voted her without reconsidering anyway so why suggest you would do that as a rogue?
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on May 7, 2013 10:16:40 GMT -8
Okay, clearly these deadline times don't work as well for me as I'd hoped. Curse public transport. End Day 3. Riku: 1 (Jolyma) Jolyma: 2 (Riku, Marinated) So Jolyma is lynched. Unfortunately, she was a Pigeon - which means the game is over and the Cat has won. Perhaps that shady individual would care to reveal themselves?
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Post by Riku on May 7, 2013 10:26:56 GMT -8
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Post by Marinated on May 7, 2013 10:34:35 GMT -8
Congrats Riku! Well played!
You know, I nearly did a last minute change when I saw you lurking there before the deadline. But I didn't have the nerve to risk it.
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Post by Jolyma on May 7, 2013 10:34:39 GMT -8
I knew you wouldn't have made such a bad argument if you weren't a rogue! There were two things that made me doubt it: The 'Just because someone suspects you doesn't make them a rogue' rule, and the fact that Marinated waited sooooooo long to vote!
And of course I think the rogue would have thought about what each of the innocents would do Marinated. Which is why I was surprised it was Yasmi banned and not one of you two.
I wouldn't have banned Cala first, maybe Sets, but that's just because I've wanted to see what it would be like to ban him.
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Post by Marinated on May 7, 2013 10:48:21 GMT -8
I only waited so long to vote because I just couldn't make up my mind. But it was such a close choice and I could see Riku's point. I was a little suspicious of his vote change but he forecast it clearly before changing so it seemed a natural development.
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Post by Marinated on May 7, 2013 11:32:49 GMT -8
Thanks for running this, Furare! It's the smallest game I've ever played and it was quite a challenge!
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Post by Setsusa on May 7, 2013 13:20:23 GMT -8
wp reeku
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Post by Riku on May 7, 2013 13:45:08 GMT -8
To be fair, I was trying to make a post, but I had really bad service on my phone and finally gave up, and just found the Hobbes picture to post after the deadline
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