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Post by Bunnylaroo on Sept 29, 2013 7:51:45 GMT -8
So I'm alive, survived the wedding, and will be catching up/posting whatever thoughts get thunk while I'm catching up sometime after the wedding party breakfast. OOC by the way.
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 29, 2013 11:04:37 GMT -8
Ugh. Is anyone having little snippets of forum issues? Here or there I get a forums down type of thing, but refresh brings it right back. I just lost my reply @riku I think my concern about your theory is DD's placement. It seemed as if it was done to fit your theory, so it's what is causing me doubt. As for banning Sets, it sort of goes: Riku would do that, so I think that Riku wouldn't have. It's a bit WIFOMish, but at the moment, is enough to make me lean innocent on you. @wrecker Innocent:Wrecker, Luv, but not as strong, Riku, Leif (To be fair I did not specifically say Leif before, but let my conclusion speak for itself) The game you are thinking of, I believe I pushed for a no-show, followed up by a person who said they would have to withdraw, and I had thought the replacements unavailable for another Day. Not a person trying to play but busy. I'm not sure what that means for your theory, other than, that's not exactly how I decide my ban options, exactly. I don't make a list like that, I'm never that organized. I tend to know who was banned first in the last couple games, and if someone has missed out regularly, but I'm also not the only one who takes that into consideration. I'm just more vocal about it. As to why I narrowed it down to the 3 being voted for: I, for some reason, thought that the 12 hour soft deadling I proposed was coming early this morning (my time), and I was planning on sleeping late, so I was putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak, and starting the discussion for consensus.
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Post by firebolt153 on Sept 29, 2013 11:32:03 GMT -8
Thoughts from the girl whose hard drive is dying a slow and painful death: This is all OOC because I had to write it by hand first and then type it into my phone. Grumble of all grumbles. Right from the beginning, Leif gave me niggles, but I though I might have been the roleplay at first. He made an early comment about the Sets/Ducky connection. He then went back and forth with Wrecker a bit on her initial suspicion list, with him subsequently voting her. Tae commented on this exchange, and Leif clarified, saying he wasn't claiming a rogue axis. Tae later says though (9/25 4:54 pm est) that she thinks "Leif might be putting a little too much stock in a Duck/Sets connection." Something that stuck out to me (which lead me to drawing an arrow next to the bullet point I made so I wouldn't forget it) was (I believe) the Riku focus takes the spotlight off Wrecker (9/25, 9:18 pm est). This felt like a subtle push back in Wrecker's direction on Leif's part, which I thought was rather suspicious. Mari said (9/25, 9:36 pm est) that she doesn't see the case against Crazy or Wrecker, and I agree. I don't either. In reply to Bunny on 9/25 10:23 pm est -- It was probably just my overall reaction to those such as Joly and Tae, where I found most of their posts to be color and not a lot of substance. They have since posted more content less color, so I retract this. I *would* reply in song, but the untimely death of my two year old hard drive has sapped my music-making skillz at present. [IC, about the first part of Crazy's post on 9/25 11:04 pm est] Crazy stick-wielding baboon say what? [OOC] The end of Day 2, 4 people had voted for Riku. I admit Riku was on the top of my suspicion list along with Leif due to things already discussed by others, but subsequent posting from him on his "shaky logic" and impressive ban theory have lowered him a bit. Given that this took me three hours to compile (my writing hand is all cramped now), I expect that there will be questions for me. I will be happy to answer them, however it may not be til after Day end because I'll be working at the deadline. Therefore, I shall [bold]Vote: Leif[\bold] at present, as he is my top suspicion. Fluff: Bunny, re: bridesmaids -- I'm grateful every day that my bridesmaid experience was nothing but stellar because I've heard so many horror stories. I'm sorry that your experience has been so poor . I am also amused that we all seem to catch some sort of ROMS plague at the same time. Even my computer got sick -- she had three viruses (this is unconnected to Hard Drive Death).
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Post by firebolt153 on Sept 29, 2013 11:33:42 GMT -8
Ugh.
Vote: Leif
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Post by Marinated on Sept 29, 2013 12:05:34 GMT -8
* He looks around briefly, hoping no-one had noticed his rather unorthodox entry to the building. He needn't have worried, it looked like there was hardly anyone here who could have seen him. He sat quietly for a time, making notes from the tape recorder he had hidden before he left, then went to get a drink. He thought he had the gist of it now, but would need more time to be certain. * I wonder about Marinated, though it's largely based on her interest in me. Specifically initially saying I was pushing for Ducky, and then later Marinated voted for me saying, "Yep, I know I haven't given reasons" but that I seem off. That's a distinct change. It looks a little retaliatory, but thinking about it, I think it justifies moving her up the list. Forgetting reasons for suspicion is something we've seen in rogues before. I didn't forget anything. I was apologising for not explaining just why your posts didn't look right to me. My previous comment mentioned it briefly and I meant to expand on that but was too tired at the time. Vote: TaelacThis is mainly a strong gut feeling based on post 74 and some of her other posts which reminded me of rogue Taelac. I've caught up with the thread now but need to go back and cross-check a few things. I'll be around up right up to the deadline if I need to switch my vote. Current reads are: FoS: Taelac, Leif, Riku Low FoS: Firebolt I don't want to lynch Jolyma or Wrecker today. Bunny, Crazy and Luvessy I'm not so sure about yet. Ugh. Is anyone having little snippets of forum issues? Here or there I get a forums down type of thing, but refresh brings it right back. I just lost my reply Ouch! Yes, I've had brief problems too. Never very long though.
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 29, 2013 12:41:30 GMT -8
So now we have votes spread out among Crazy, Riku, Leif, Tae and Marinated.
Wrecker votes Riku Riku votes Crazy Leif votes Marinated Taelac votes Crazy Crazy votes Riku Firebolt votes Leif Marinated votes Taelac
Crazy 2, Riku 2, Leif, Taelac and Marinated all 1
Vote: Crazymg
I think that Crazy is more likely rogue than the rest of the options, based on information so far. The one thing bothering me about it is how calm she's been. We have the numbers to lynch, we just need to agree now. I'll keep this open, we have a little less than 4 hours.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Sept 29, 2013 14:33:27 GMT -8
[OOC: First of all, I'm sorry I haven't been around. The wedding was mercifully drama free and a good time was had by all. I'm not going to do this in character because I don't have it in me at the moment...it's been a long three days. I'm running on very little sleep and I sort of dropped a table on my foot while cleaning up after the reception, so apologies for any non-sensicalness that follows. I'm not going to complain about the small number of posts because I am firmly in the "part of the problem" camp. Thoughts: As for the several(?) people noting that my logic was shaky, you are correct. My logic was shaky. That's because my suspicion was due to gut, but I know from experience that when we have to come together as a group and agree more than ever, reasoning along the lines of "because I said so" is virtually useless. Due to that, I attempted to explain what it was that caused such a reaction from me, which I'm sure we all know can be difficult. In this particular situation, it was a case of finding the suspicion first and then looking for reasons why, which is undoubtedly in itself a suspicious thing to do; however, this time it was necessary, and I hope you can understand why. I think I'm stumbling over this because I don't recall you having a problem voting based on gut in the past. You acknowledge your past experience with that being less than successful, and I realize that it doesn't often result in consensus, and that consensus is necessary if we're ever going to move forward here. But I guess the problem I have here is that at least one of the things you mentioned as specifically making you suspicious was, to my reading, utterly fabricated. There's looking for reasons, and then there's making up reasons because you didn't find any. The former may be a necessary evil, the latter is just...evil. I continue to be uncomfortable with you. As to the ban theory, forgive me for saying, but that looks like a very convoluted way to justify that gut feeling on crazy that you're trying to justify. Experience level is relative. Threat level is relative. You seem to be starting with the premise that "Crazy is a rogue" and fitting a ban theory around it. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ That said. Crazy. I'm sorry about your wrist. I hope you feel better soon. But I have no idea what you're doing. So, here you said: And then you voted him. And then people said "What happened that reminded you of what?" And you were like "I can't explain right now." And then people were like "Ugh, for reals, you need to explain" but then here you were like: Which sounds like the thing that Riku was doing in the past game made you less, rather than more suspicious of him. So I'm totally confused by what you've said here. And the confusion is made worse by your voting Riku at the end of that post even though you're not really suspicious of him. I get that we need consensus and that self-preservation votes happen,but if you're not that suspicious of Riku surely there is someone else you might be suspicious of. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Firebolt, sorry about your hard drive. LOL at the fact that you're hand-ROMSing. I hate phone posting with a passion so I empathize. Something that stuck out to me (which lead me to drawing an arrow next to the bullet point I made so I wouldn't forget it) was (I believe) the Riku focus takes the spotlight off Wrecker (9/25, 9:18 pm est). This felt like a subtle push back in Wrecker's direction on Leif's part, which I thought was rather suspicious. I looked back to the post you're referencing and I read that as Leif saying that he's less suspicious of Wrecker. Maybe I'm reading that totally wrong, I'm terrible with probabilities. But his shifting the focus from Riku to wrecker would surely only be suspicious if Riku were rogue, wouldn't it? I mean, what other purpose could Leif have in saying "Hey everybody stop looking at Riku and look over here doo-dee-doo-dee-doo" unless it were to save Riku. Which, why would he do that unless he and Riku were partners? I see you have other reasons too, although what you posted was basically just a summary of what Leif said, not so much why it gave you the "heebie jeebies". __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Feelings: I feel like Wrecker is frustrated by the lack of a lynch so far, but I think this makes me lean innocent on her. I have no opinion of Luv (so obviously need to reread there) except that she and Leif are the only ones whose costumes were identifiable to me from their first (in costume) posts. There must be a lot of role playing going on in that household and that sounds way more indecent than I intend it to but I typed it and I'm running out of steam here. Marinated's one-off vote on Tae, given that she was (and is) suspicious of Leif yesterDay and there is actually a vote there today was initially off-putting, but I realize that she intends to be around and is willing to change if necessary. I still think I voted her in a game (Cluedo maybe? I should probably go look) for votes that jumped all over the place and she was innocent, so I'm still undecided there. The post of Tae's she cited is odd in the sense that I can't remember ever seeing Tae post a massive wall of text like that before and but that could be faulty memory and/or busy Tae. I know in the last game I played Tae was busy and unable to post much, so I think I'm used to a less verbose Tae. And if memory serves I've only played with innocent Tae. So difference noted. I feel like a mom driving a mini-van when Tae and Joly go at it and I SWEAR I'LL TURN THIS CAR AROUND, etc. I'm glad it was of short duration. I'm most disturbed by Riku's "Yeah, had no reasons so I went to find some. Here's a theory that also points there" on Crazy, so I'm going to Vote: RikuI'll try to check in before I head out in about an hour, but I won't be home at deadline.
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Post by Marinated on Sept 29, 2013 14:37:17 GMT -8
I've had another look at Crazy's posts and I'm just not seeing her as a rogue so I won't be voting there today.
Unvote: Taelac Vote: Riku
Riku - (3) - Wrecker, Crazy, Bunny, Marinated Crazy - (3)- Riku, Taelac, Crazy Marinated - (1) - Leif Leif - (1) - Firebolt
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 29, 2013 14:39:36 GMT -8
Doesn't that make it Riku 4?
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 29, 2013 14:43:49 GMT -8
And you have me and Crazy mixed up on Crazy's votes.
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Post by Marinated on Sept 29, 2013 14:46:52 GMT -8
Oops, so I did. And yes, it should have been 4. I added Bunny's vote in on a preveiw edit and forgot to change the number.
Riku - (4) - Wrecker, Crazy, Bunny, Marinated Crazy - (3)- Riku, Taelac, Jolyma Marinated - (1) - Leif Leif - (1) - Firebolt
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Post by Crazy Mg on Sept 29, 2013 15:09:03 GMT -8
I only compared Riku in cluedo to Riku this game, my suspicions were lessened but not removed.
I don't think wrecker, luv or bunny are rogue, probably firebolt.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Sept 29, 2013 15:45:55 GMT -8
I only compared Riku in cluedo to Riku this game, my suspicions were lessened but not removed. I don't think wrecker, luv or bunny are rogue, probably firebolt. If that was in answer to what I was asking you, I still don't understand. First you said "Riku's behavior reminds me of something he did as a rogue in a past game and this worries me" Then you said "Riku's behavior reminded me of what he did in Cluedo, except not really, so now I'm less suspicious". How can something worry you and make you less suspicious at the same time? Because that's what it sounds like you're saying. Please correct me if I'm understanding you wrong.
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Post by Crazy Mg on Sept 29, 2013 16:03:58 GMT -8
One post reminded me and the next did not.
If Riku is innocent then i think Tae might be rouge. Can see rouge Tae is more of a probability than first thought but very unlikely Tae and Riku are rogues together.
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Leif
Senior Chatterbox
Posts: 600
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Post by Leif on Sept 29, 2013 16:16:44 GMT -8
Nearing the deadline, I'll vote for a lynch.
Vote: Riku
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 29, 2013 16:27:31 GMT -8
I can see why a long summary post from me might remind Marinated of some of my previous rogue strategies, but I'll note that a key part of that strategy was to do a lot of summing up and very little analysis, in the hopes of looking useful. Post 74 has quite a bit of actual discussion of the summarized bits.
*shrug* Migraine brain makes it hard for me to think, and I couldn't review the thread through all the color text and also keep a hold of what I'd "translated" out in order to take a look at what people were saying, AND also formulate any kind of coherent comment on it.
I could have as easily done the summary and not shared it, giving only my thoughts, but 1) I thought others might also find a summary that cut down on the color text useful, and 2) I wanted to make sure what I thought I'd understood was accurate. For a fun analogy, if you think of normal brain function as a neatly arrayed collection of crystal dishes in a glass display case, you can think of what a migraine does to that for me as taking that glass case full of crystal and hitting it with a wrecking ball.
I can't answer the more nebulous charge regarding my other posts.
Crazy, I don't suppose you could explain what makes you think one of Riku and I must be a rogue?
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Sept 29, 2013 16:39:57 GMT -8
End of Day 3.
Vote Totals: Riku: 5 (wrecker15, Crazymg, Bunnylaroo, Marinated, Leif) Crazymg: 3 (Riku, Taelac, Jolyma) Leif: 1 (firebolt153)
Required for 50%+1: 6
No lynch.
Day 4 will begin at 11:30am PDT on 30th September (7:30pm BST).
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 17:10:02 GMT -8
Ah, *crap*.
Furare told me the deadline was 1.30 her time and like an *idiot* I subtracted 7 hours instead of adding 7. I'm sorry. I'm an idiot.
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 29, 2013 17:46:30 GMT -8
You're not an idiot, Wrecker. We just need to do better about working together earlier. I didn't notice Leif's post until after the clock had already run out, and I saw that Furare had listed it in the count.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 17:50:17 GMT -8
Okay, I'm going to do a 180 flip here. I am very very very suspicious of tae *not* voting Riku to secure the lynch despite actually being there. Innocent tae in a VERY recent game voted Marinated on Day 1 with "I really only have gut feelings on Marinated, Setsusa and Aethera, none strong and nothing I would normally be willing to vote on, but that's more or less the order of descending twitchiness.In the interest of trying to support a consensus and to get a little information to work with, I'll vote my twitchiest twitch..."
It's Day 3. Why would innocent tae not want a lynch at this time, unless it's to prevent the town from getting information? I do have some vague memories of tae wanting to lynch herself in a previous game because people were talking so much about her because she felt that people would get information out of it. I really do struggle to see that she wouldn't push a lynch this late for information.
As another note, Tae tends to vote to prod low posters which she hasn't done this game. I'm not sure that's super indicative of anything though.
Part of me wanted to say that it's Rogue Taelac that didn't vote to save Rogue Riku, but then I realised I'm extrapolating a little too much and that would be just drawing up a rogue axis with tinted glasses already on.
I will leave it at 'suspicious of taelac for not pushing lynch'.
Joly... I am a little less decided on. She could've swapped too, but did explicitly state she didn't want to lynch crazy. I think my personal frustration here is that at this point in time, in this game, in this context (to prevent people jumping all over me later), innocent lynch > no lynch. So while my gut thinks crazy is innocent, if I was less lame and actually remembered the deadline correctly, I would've done whatever was necessary to secure a lynch and I didn't really care if it was Riku or Crazy. Sorry. Call me hardhearted, bloodthirsty, whatever... I'm calling it like I see it. I get that some people don't agree with me. That probably neither raises nor lowers my suspicion of Joly.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 17:51:34 GMT -8
And, sniped by 'didn't see vote post from Leif'.
I'm just going to go bang my head on a wall now.
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 29, 2013 18:11:08 GMT -8
No I wanted to lynch Crazy. I didn't agree with Riku. I had every intention of helping the lynch, and I dropped the ball. I ran to the store for dinner stuff, and then got caught up in the kids. I have no excuse, I knew what time I was supposed to be watching for. I typically feel that I'd rather not help lynch someone who I feel is not a rogue, but there was enough suspicion on Riku that it couldn't all be rogues pushing it.
That said, the singletons so late in the Day made consensus more difficult to achieve.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 18:16:53 GMT -8
For what it's worth, firebolt, I don't think Leif would've needed to do subtle anything. I'm going to borrow a few of Furare's lines from Vanilla Filler and say that I don't think voting me on a virtually nonexistent case on Day 2 would be a great idea for rogue Leif, and I don't know that nudging anyone in any direction is going to work because most of the time people don't get what you want them to do or what you mean when you yell in their faces.
I may go back and relook Leif afterwards, but at the moment I'm leaning innocent here.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 18:21:29 GMT -8
Oh, didn't want to lynch Riku. Yeah, sorry, typo.
Sigh. I also note that firebolt says Riku was high on her suspicions list, and then lowered him, and had Leif raised to high suspicion... And then voted Leif when Leif was in no danger of being lynched. That's also very very frustrating and FoS worthy, because I don't see any indication that Riku is *off* the suspicions list, just lowered. I tend to read more into tae's non vote switch though, because I know innocent tae in the past is generally pro-lynch in this kind of scenario.
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Post by Luvessy on Sept 29, 2013 18:26:38 GMT -8
[OOC: I'm a worse idiot, as I forgot all about this this afternoon to deal with more pressing things. There's a reason I haven't played of late...]
Now, Miss Wrecker's running' around, all concerned bout gettin' her time messed up. Well, I say that the sun's hard to lasso and some times time marches on in ways we ain't expecting. Same thing happened to me. But even shin' that, I ain't too sure what Miss Wrecker feels bad bout. I don't see how her being round woulda changed anything and sometimes we just can't take on all the things in front of us. You gotta share the load or yer horse can't go, is what I say.
Next thing that occurs to me comin' in late is that a straight majority lynchin' is a hard thing to do. I reckon that it pushes more on seein' to it that someone is strung up, even if that ain't yer best choice for it, and agreeing to work together. I don't like that much, myself. I hate lynchin' folk just to see what happens, but I don't see much way 'round it. That's what this here count tells me. So I can't go on tryin' to just be comfortable no more, I spose, but gots to be more aggressive, like I'm tryin' to tame a horse.
Thing is, 'spite Riku gettin' the most votes, I ain't real sure why folk were swingin' their ballots that-a-way. Was it just cause they wanted to get agreement somewhere, like I was sayin, or because they think he's suspicious, or just more sneaky than the others. I need to look at that again, myself. Not sure if I'll get a sleep in first.
OOC: All my posts are from my phone and sometimes I miss its helpful corrections. Please ask if my phraseology is nonsensical...
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 18:32:16 GMT -8
Luv, I think I would've been able to help because I'm probably one of the most aggressive players here and would've literally bugged people until they changed their vote =P It's more the fact that I didn't even give myself the *opportunity* to attempt to push the lynch through at Day end than anything else.
I agree with you that straight majority lynching does make people vote for the sake of getting a lynch. But at this point in time, that's exactly what I'm trying to do. We need ONE lynch, and then at least we will have some concrete information to work with. It *is* lynching people to see what happens, but from what happens it's much more possible to look back and deduce something useful as compared to guesswork from the bans.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 18:39:18 GMT -8
Augh I give up trying to make sense of this for now. Have some Night time entertainment. I will be back later.
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Post by Riku on Sept 29, 2013 19:00:53 GMT -8
Well then. Oops. I had it mixed up and thought deadline was 11:30 toDay.
I think "to my reading" is the key phrase here, because I don't recall anything that you even pointed out as you thinking it was fabricated. I guess the closest would be Crazy saying Marinated's vote was too weak having been said before? Marinated acknowledged her case was weak, she certainly didn't acknowledge it was too weak, or else she wouldn't have voted based on it. So how is Crazy telling Marinated that her case is too weak to merit a vote not seeming to be an original thought?
I actually began that thinking that it would end up meaning there were two rogues in Group A, but I ended up convincing myself that it meant one in Group A and one that was Crazy. I realize though that it certainly doesn't look like that, so your conclusion here is understandable.
I sincerely hope that's a snide summary and not what you actually think I was saying. Clearly, trying to explain why I was suspicious of someone was a mistake; I promise to never do it again, that seems to be working out fine for Leif and Marinated. And as much as I hate the "Would I really do this?" arguments -- you've seen me play as a rogue. How could it possibly benefit me to make what is quite probably the weakest case I've ever made, rogue or innocent, and then tell everyone that I had the suspicion first and then tried to figure out the reasons? If this happened at crunch time and I needed to make a case on Crazy in order to swing a lynch her way, then sure, it would at least make some sense, but it wasn't. If I were a rogue, I'd just pick a different person (or at least a different post) to be suspicious of. Unfortunately, as an innocent I can't do that, so I have to stick with what I've got.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 19:21:40 GMT -8
Above quotes by Bunny, for future references. I was confused for a bit.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 19:24:18 GMT -8
Also my boss just called me and told me not to go to work today. I'm confused, but will probably be back much earlier than expected. So hopefully I can get some analysis going. I'd encourage people to get their reads and FoS in by end of Night.
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