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Post by Riku on Sept 26, 2013 15:05:22 GMT -8
Precisely. It was slight backpedaling. My previous suspicion on Leif was relatively nonexistent, so by significantly more, I was intending to say that it was now relatively significantly existent, not more significant than my previously significant existent suspicion of Crazy. Relatively. It was Luvessy's post after mine, mostly, that made my suspicion on Crazy go down slightly. Her point was one that had been in the back of my mind, but that made it resurface. It was enough to make me hesitate and question my decision, but I stand by my vote.
As for the several(?) people noting that my logic was shaky, you are correct. My logic was shaky. That's because my suspicion was due to gut, but I know from experience that when we have to come together as a group and agree more than ever, reasoning along the lines of "because I said so" is virtually useless. Due to that, I attempted to explain what it was that caused such a reaction from me, which I'm sure we all know can be difficult. In this particular situation, it was a case of finding the suspicion first and then looking for reasons why, which is undoubtedly in itself a suspicious thing to do; however, this time it was necessary, and I hope you can understand why.
------------
I think Bunny has made an interesting point about Joly and her relation to Wrecker's list.
I don't agree with Wrecker's willingness to lynch herself if necessary, but that is simply a matter of principle. I believe her intentions were not lacking integrity.
Taelac as of yet seems exceedingly like Taelac, and the same goes for Marinated. That is, Marinated seems like Marinated, not like Taelac.
I have no memory of Firebolt, or anything she's said. This may be due to a lack of an avatar. I'll have to go check up on that.
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 26, 2013 16:29:57 GMT -8
If you want to be REALLY technical, you're amusingly tipsy posts gave you 2 posts to Sets' 1, which is what I was looking at. Login names. "You seem to be quite excitable in response to some mild puzzlement," Talia said. "You said one thing, and when that was pointed out to be technically inaccurate, you said the above quoted thing, and when that was also pointed out to be inaccurate, you changed your answer a second time to say that it was the content that concerned you. Is that not something that would draw your curiosity? "Certainly your attempt to suggest that my mild interest is some sort of character flaw or misrepresentation is noteworthy in the face of the evidence before us, which shows your claim changing as flaws were pointed out, and is plain for anyone to see. How it could possibly be 'deliberate obfuscation' to note exactly what you said, is quite beyond me."
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Sept 26, 2013 16:38:26 GMT -8
G'morning and welcome to Day 3.
Here is a message from the rogues:
So DementedDuck is banned.
There are 10 players remaining; once again you need 6 votes for one person to get a lynch. You have until 5:30pm PDT on September 29th.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 26, 2013 17:51:09 GMT -8
Bugger.
Vote: Riku
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 26, 2013 20:50:26 GMT -8
If all our brains worked the same, how boring things would be I think that being able to talk about the differing points of view and seeing the reasoning, even if it doesn't lead to agreement, is a big part of the game.
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Post by Luvessy on Sept 27, 2013 11:08:27 GMT -8
Well, this lack of talkin' sure ain't gettin' is no where. How'd'we know who has the biggest headache if no one's gripin' bout it.
Now, we know DD done got lost last night, and we know that there Leif fellow sure did go on and on about a link 'tween him and Sets. Well, looks like there's another link alright, and it's that they both are dancin' wit them spirits. Now, I ain't none to sure what that means bout Leif, but thought it worth noting.
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 27, 2013 11:56:58 GMT -8
If you want to be REALLY technical, you're amusingly tipsy posts gave you 2 posts to Sets' 1, which is what I was looking at. Login names. "You seem to be quite excitable in response to some mild puzzlement," Talia said. "You said one thing, and when that was pointed out to be technically inaccurate, you said the above quoted thing, and when that was also pointed out to be inaccurate, you changed your answer a second time to say that it was the content that concerned you. Is that not something that would draw your curiosity? "Certainly your attempt to suggest that my mild interest is some sort of character flaw or misrepresentation is noteworthy in the face of the evidence before us, which shows your claim changing as flaws were pointed out, and is plain for anyone to see. How it could possibly be 'deliberate obfuscation' to note exactly what you said, is quite beyond me." Let's take what Joly said in completely the wrong direction, and make it sound like it's the gospel. Then, when she points it out, let's take it in another, when really, all she's doing, is trying to show that there was a little more to the thought process, it just isnt all in one place. It pisses me off when people do that. 'OMG, you furthered your explanation, but it isn't what you said first, so therefore, I am going to be a pain in the ass about it, and run it into the ground, rather than find something of worth, because pushing buttons amuses me!' Now that I have showed you the exact thoughts I had at the time, I would expect you to drop it, but let's beat the dead horse, and create a fog to hide behind. My original thought was valid and not technically inaccurate at all, because the content of what was said had no bearing on their presence in the thread. You did not merely note what I said, but what you thought I meant, spinning it and putting it out there to cast aspersions. It doesn't even matter that other people were also quiet folks for Sets' ban to still fit a stupid hypothesis that no one even agrees with, so WHY again, is this so important to you? Especially since you've, in the past, publically admitted to enjoying it when you piss me off, and actually behaving towards me in a manner to do exactly that?
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 27, 2013 15:31:33 GMT -8
I'm not super thrilled about Luv asking people to talk more, as personally I have barely seen enough from her to make judgement. And you know what's worse? Part of me feels like it's rogue Luvessy laying low, another part of me feels like rogue Luvessy wouldn't actually do that. So what am I left with? The fact that this behaviour isn't really indicative, but just busy-Luv. I am prepared to FoS for what feels like a pot-kettle comment to me though. So yes. FoS.
Can I be radical and respectfully request that Tae and Joly just try not to talk to each other? I'm not sure anything good is going to come out of this. Even if you think the other person's a rogue, there's still one more to catch, and from the looks of it you're just going to have another... Back and forth discussion involving no one except each other. It wastes your time, and the rest don't get any beneficial read out of it except 'Oh, this again'.
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Post by Luvessy on Sept 27, 2013 15:59:02 GMT -8
Wrecker, ma'am, I ain't sayin' that I've talked a whole lot, but I were seeing that in bout 18 hours since DD's fate twere announced, we had you sayin' nothin new but voting that ya still wanted to sling up Riku, and then we got Miss Jolyma just fussin' and futin' with her sis.
And, yeah, that's all I think is going on there, some reg'lar squabblin' 'mongst those two. Thing is, I reckon Tae there is right and Joly didgo and change or least re-represent her doings. And I reckon Miss Joly really do think Tae's making too much of it all, so she's stuck on that. So those two'll just go round and round and then we don't talk much bout other folk.
So I figured I'd throw out something to chew on and see if folk bit on it or not. Seems not, cepting Wrecker's now tied up in a knot that I ain't said much so therefore can't say it's a might bit quiet in these parts. So be it. I don't mind some attention, though I do prefer when it's folk noticing that I ain't ordinary. Them's the folk ya ought remember round the campfire, you know.
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Post by Luvessy on Sept 27, 2013 16:02:59 GMT -8
Oh, one more thought I want to add on to the rest for now. I do hate to be a hypocrite, but is it so that those folk that don't meet what you expect and ask others to do better, is it true that them's villains? Yeah, I reckon I ought do better, but I ain't calling all the quiet ones today hooligans, so I'm not sure I follow why Wrecker's eyeing me funny for that. I hope I'm talking sense here...
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 27, 2013 16:05:22 GMT -8
For the record, I am not trying to piss Joly off. Her posts seemed inconsistent to me, and I noted it, as I would have with any other player. That's it.
I'm going to take the rest of the night off, see you all sometime tomorrow after I drag out of bed. So it might be afternoon, Maude willing. Cheers.
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Post by Luvessy on Sept 27, 2013 16:23:07 GMT -8
Maybe if we all just swap stories at the campfire, that might get our caravan goin' again. Never want to dig in too deep or ya might not get movin' on time.
I reckon there's two things that are puzzlin' me, that I needs to ask about... The first is to that Crazy lady. She's been asked a bunch of timbers but it's sure like pullin' teeth to get any answer. Just what is it that's got yer hair all ruffled? What's giving ya deja vu, and why's it keepin' you up nights? Wrecker phrased this best. No one's asking when whatever it is happened before. We're all asking what it is that's happening now and why it worries you.
Second is Miss Jolyma: "I still have that gut feel on Crazy, but I don't think I'll vote her toMorrow, just because at this point, I'd like to know WHY the gut feel is there, for my own sake." I just can't gander why it is that you've figured what it is you're doing tomorrow when night hasn't even passed. Well, it's just like a whole village can be there one day and empty the next - you just shouldn't be knowin' what tomorrow brings. This here sounds like you know your gut won't be set in a day.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 27, 2013 17:07:23 GMT -8
Now that's more like it.
Thanks, Luv.
I'll retract the FoS because I placed it to put a bit of pressure on you to get your thoughts out. Sorry if that seems like a low move, but I could have posted way more than I have up to date. I am intentionally not posting because I took the jump and put my thoughts forward to start conversation yesterDay. I could continue doing the same, but then no one else has to take much initiative to go back and examine the thread really closely and that's good for the rogues.
I'm hoping to at least see some other thoughts before I summarize my own findings tonight.
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 27, 2013 17:55:36 GMT -8
Taelac. This is the last I will say on the matter. Further extrapolation does not invalidate the original. The comments made on the subject went together. They did not, as you keep trying to claim, counter each other. They complimented. It wasn't important that I put every single thought into the thread, because it is not important. It has no bearing on who I think is or is not a rogue. That you are making it a mountain, when it wasn't even a molehill is ridiculous.
Wrecker. I apologize to you and the others.
Luvessey. I'm not mincing words, or trying to phrase things carefully any more. I've done that too many games in the past. It's not fun, and it makes everything sound too fake, and too cautious, no matter who does it. Do I know what happens next? No. But, I see no reason not to put my thoughts and my plans into the thread just in case something DOES happen. At least, had I been the target, you would have known my last words, as it were. It's foolish to NOT plan for toMorrow, regardless of what more immediate futures may hold. What if it does come, and one is not ready?
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 27, 2013 19:38:00 GMT -8
Leif sure does seem like a depressed fellow, and maybe that is his lot in life. I agree with Pecos Luvvy that he did try to connect Sets and Ducky. Is he the type to set himself up or the type to keep himself safe? That is the question weighing on my mind in regards to him. I'm leaning more towards depressed, but not suicidal.
I've reread Riku's last post several times, and I keep losing the thought train. I THINK he said he thought one way, reconsidered, and maybe now he doesn't?
I'm interested in discovering why the nonvoters chose not to vote.
Also, I would like to ask again, if we can try to get at least the numbers to vote earlier than right before deadlines, even if we don't yet have a consensus. It will not only enable us to focus our discussion when we need it focused, but will allow everyone a chance to see and talk about the options. Is a 12 hour soft deadline too little of a window, or would it be a good time frame? I feel that that time gives us plenty of open discussion time in which we can look anywhere and everywhere, much like a brainstorming session, and then we talk about the major votees for a consensus to lynch.
And now, I am going to curl up with my little green friend and get some sleep. She's a rather comforting creature, once you get used to her.
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Post by firebolt153 on Sept 27, 2013 20:44:51 GMT -8
[OOC] I apologize profusely for my absence in the last day and a half: my computer suddenly decided to go from normal to slow as molasses in the last week, making it nearly impossible to do anything (I am currently posting from my phone, and it took me nearly an hour to boot up my computer and get my password for this site). I will try to get a post in as soon as I can, so if I miss something, please let me know.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 28, 2013 8:45:09 GMT -8
Good pastnoon, my lords and ladies.
I trust all of you are doing well! I apologise once again for my absence, I have had many duties to attend to that have kept me from enjoying your delightful company. Let me pause at this moment to say that I am thrilled that Ms. Luvessy has joined our company and am sure that her input will be much appreciated amongst our guests.
[Uh, okay, that's about as far as I can go in terms of RP at this moment. I'm sorry. I have had a hectic day. I've been running up and down for the past 16 hours on less than 5 hours of sleep and Tae's migraine seems to have flown over to me over the internet. I also have to get up in less than 6 hours and will be dashing nonstop again. Am running on pure adrenaline right now, so I apologise for any rambling that's about to take place. Yay incoherent-or-barely-coherent Wrecker.
I don't actually think anyone will adhere to the 12 hour soft deadline even if we set one. Call me a pessimist. We can try, though.
Where is... Well, I wanted to say Riku, but I basically want to know where everyone that hasn't posted yet this round is. We're 36 hours in, this is a bit silly. No one wins except the rogues if we don't post.
The bans are very... Well. Ok. I am tempted to just assume no information and go with that, but let's see what else might be a reasonable conclusion. If I look at it this way - most of us regard experienced players as dangerous players. If I take 'experienced' to mean people who started playing before me, that's Joly, Tae, Leif, Luv and Marinated. Normally, I'd actually have expected at least one of this group to go in the first two rounds of what looks to be a four or five round game if the rogues have a clean sweap (touch wood). The fact that it hasn't *actually* happened makes me think that there's at least one rogue in the five, six if you include me - either keeping the rest of the players as smokescreen, or for the challenge.
I just... Ugh. The bans are pointing me directly at Joly. And yet that, plus an even bigger reaction to Tae than I thought (feels like paranoia, but it might just be a Joly tae thing), are the only things I have against her.
I find it absurd that everyone who was voting Riku and Riku himself seems to have vanished overnight, by the way. That's NOT a town-friendly thing for Riku to do - given the absence of evidence to prove otherwise, it is a distinct possibility that he's a rogue laying low just so there won't be any fuss. I would not actually expect innocent Riku to just up and disappear with him nearly getting lynched yesterDay.
Okay, end of jumbly rambly thoughts. I'm not drunk. Just adrenaline-pumped. I'll, uh, be back in tomorrow.]
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 28, 2013 8:47:57 GMT -8
Oh man. Yes, I am really tired.
I don't want the rogues to get a clean sweep. You know I'm tired when I start making weird spelling errors. Maybe I will spell sandwich as sandwhich. Hurhur.
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 28, 2013 8:49:11 GMT -8
I forgot to add that the ban actually reminded me of something Riku did in the Cat and Pigeon game, but it was under a different circumstance and context, so I will need to relook that.
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 28, 2013 9:28:53 GMT -8
There is a little man with a jackhammer inside my sinuses, trying to knock out my front teeth from the back. I'm sorry to hear you're hurting Wrecker, but I don't think it was my headache, since that appears to have come back and brought reinforcements. I might have picked the wrong lifetime to give up caffeinated soda. Feel better soon, anyway.
My grand addition to the thread for the moment is that it's definitely time for Crazy to explain what she's meaning about Riku. In the absence of an explanation, I'm willing to vote Crazy. Beyond that, it definitely feels like we have a bad case of weekend-thread.
I'll be back later, going to try to pry off my face and catch the little monster with the jackhammer. I'd like to pick my roleplay back up.
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Post by Riku on Sept 28, 2013 11:59:11 GMT -8
[Phone posting today, so OOC and no quotes, sorry]
@joly re:confusion over my thought train
I'm not sure which thought train you're talking about, but here's a quick summary: -last Evening I meant my suspicion on Crazy had diminished, and my suspicion on Leif had increased. -My suspicion on Crazy was due to gut, but gut is hardly a reason that will convince other people I'm right, so I attempted to figure out (to limited success) what it was about her post that made me suspicious.
@wrecker re:absurdity of me not posting toDay
That's more than a bit unfair. I posted just before daybreak, and from that post to the time I most recently checked the thread (before this morning), there were about 6 content posts. I didn't have anything to say. And besides, Crazy hasn't posted for a significant chunk of time longer than I haven't, and she was close to being lynched as well. Rounding out the list of people who haven't posted toDay are Leif, Marinated, and Bunny, making for a total of... half the people still alive. I mean, I know that you're voting me, but that's just confirmation bias.
@wrecker re:bans
I think that this is a solid point in most cases, and I know I've made this argument before (or maybe done it as a rogue before? I don't remember which. maybe both). If the bans were Crazy and Firebolt (I believe the two most rookie players currently here), I'd definitely agree with you. However, they're Sets and DD, who are hardly inexperienced, let alone non-dangerous. The fact that Crazy and Firebolt are both unbanned, however, leads me to the opposite conclusion -- that one of them is a rogue.
Let's expand your grouping, based on experience: Group A is Joly, Leif, Luv, Marinated, Tae, and Wrecker, Group B is Me, Sets, DD, and Bunny, and Group C is Firebolt and Crazy. The recent ROMS meta seems to be that rogues ban people from the other groups, in order to prevent the classic "why isn't x banned?" scenario. If both of the rogues were in Group A, I would expect bans targeted at Group C, as per Wrecker's reasoning -- and there is certainly a low-information target in Firebolt if that's what the rogues are going for. The fact that Firebolt hasn't been banned while DD has, when both were roughly equally unable to play up to the time of the last ban, tells me that most likely either Firebolt is a rogue, or Crazy is a rogue. I also don't think both of them are rogues, because then I'd guess the bans would be targeting Group A. Both bans being in Group B makes me think there is one rogue in each of Group A and Group C.
Of course, this is not a perfect model for rogue behavior, as different people do things differently (and these groups are slightly arbitrary). For example, I do not think Jolyma is a rogue this game because she tends to not like banning people who haven't had much of a chance to play. I lean towards Crazy being a rogue rather than Firebolt because Firebolt is also in the Low-Information group, and so banning the two others in that group may draw attention to her.
Based on all of that, I think Crazy is a rogue. As for the other rogue, my best guess would be (based on the bans) one of Leif, Marinated, Taelac, Luvessy, and Wrecker. At this point, of those, I'm most suspicious of Leif, but for toDay I'm sticking to Crazy.
Vote: Crazymg
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Post by Crazy Mg on Sept 28, 2013 13:34:06 GMT -8
[Mg incredibly tired=sleeping on wrist=pain. I'm starting to get energy back to want to do stuff but pain sorta sucks it outta me again and attempts to keep the pain low haven't been working as great as they could have and now it's all spasmy.
I said earlier that i struggle to see a rogue Riku most of the time so when a few people do I can't help but feel like i've missed something and the last post of riku's before i voted him just made me want to vote him (I just woke up my mind is still kinda foggy). I'm inclined to agree with DD's last post and i'm now less suspicious of Riku today.
OOC-Joly is less niggly than costume-Joly.
Food time, brb]
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Leif
Senior Chatterbox
Posts: 600
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Post by Leif on Sept 28, 2013 14:24:01 GMT -8
I don't think my suspicions have changed much over the day. I don't really see too much in the Tae/Joly dust-up, we seem to see those a fair bit regardless of alignment. I'm curious about Luv mentioning me trying to make a Sets/DD connection, and then drawing nothing from it. It smacks a bit of throwing something out there and hoping someone else picks it up and run with it. I'm moving her up to watched.
I'm voting, but it's not my last word on it. I'd be willing to kick in for most of the non-posters now if it comes to it.
Vote: Marinated
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 28, 2013 15:41:37 GMT -8
It's about time people got back here. Ty guys.
Riku, that's what I mean about playing reactively and not proactively. Just because people aren't posting doesn't mean you stop. That applies to everyone *else* as well. Not just you. I think you were significantly *closer* to being lynched than Crazy, considering you had four votes to her two. Additionally you were talked about a good bit more.
Oh. Crazy. It's just... Too obvious for me to want to vote >.> I may or may not be willing to vote here based on a review of XVII, but at the moment gut screams too obvious.
My brain says Riku is innocent, crazy's a rogue. My gut says the opposite. Hooray. I'll be back tonight.
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Post by Marinated on Sept 28, 2013 16:19:58 GMT -8
Sorry about my lack of posting. I've been finding it hard to get time to concentrate on this today, and I won't really be able to do that now until tomorrow, about 14 hours before the deadline. Currently I'm still looking at Leif, Riku and Taelac but I want to take a closer look at things before deciding, because I suspect that only one of the rogues is in that group.
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Taelac
Officer
Be bold. It makes your enemies hesitate.
Posts: 357
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Post by Taelac on Sept 28, 2013 18:26:12 GMT -8
Sorry to hear you're having such a struggle, MG, and I hope you start to feel better soon.
That said, that's really not an explanation for your earlier thoughts on Riku, and it kind of reads like you didn't have one, and that now you're trying to back off your stated suspicion in an effort to not have to create one.
Vote: CrazyMG
As for that side-line about player experience levels...there's nobody in this game that I wouldn't consider to be an "experienced" player and a potential threat from either alignment, though for various reasons according to their strengths. I'd have to check to be sure, but hasn't everyone played at least one game as a rogue?
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Post by Jolyma on Sept 28, 2013 19:28:06 GMT -8
@riku re: thought trains
It's ok, I don't know what the thought train is either. It was just a lot of words going in circles, and I figured it was just basically a 'line blast' of what was in your brain at the time. I think I've got it now.
re: ban theory
Holy cow, color me impressed. I've never put that much thought into banning people, ever. (Yeah yeah JMT, sue me, I'm in awe of the man) I think townies put more thought into ban reasonings, in an attempt to find a connection, but, what you've said makes a lot of sense.
@wrecker, re bans: Why me, if I may be so bold as to ask?
@crazy re costumes: I'm not good at roleplay. I try, but I think it might be better for all of us if I post OOC, then end with flavor. I have these great ideas, but when it comes time to put them into the game, they fall apart as I try to express Joly Thoughts as Other Thoughts. It's why I quit trying to be cautious with wording, regardless of alignment. I think I sound fake when, especially as an innocent, I start trying to word things so that people aren't thinking I 'know too much' or that I'm trying to pretend I'm innocent with JMTs.
(sorry that was all so not important to the game)
Riku, why did you place Ducky with you and Sets and Bunny? You make a lot of sense for your reasoning, and that sort of scares me, but I feel that Ducky is more in group A for experience than Group B.
Ok, so we have votes for Crazy, marinated and Riku. Those are very different people. I can't see Riku banning Sets right off the bat, but, I've been burned by that before. It doesn't feel right for Riku though.
Sets' only mention was Ducky. The only connection from Ducky was Leif. While I think Sets right away could be Leif, I don't think that Ducky would have been. Why draw attention to yourself when you're not being looked at?
Of the three being voted for at the moment, I do not think Riku is a rogue. Crazy I had some gut feeling about before, and Marinated, I'm not sure I've seen enough from to make a judgement.
It's a personal botherment that I don't have strong guilty opinions, but I have strong innocent ones. It's like I have these people I'm pretty sure didn't do it, and then a bunch of possibilities.
I'd be most willing, at the moment, to vote Crazy of the three that are currently being voted.
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Post by Riku on Sept 28, 2013 20:13:24 GMT -8
The electrical company says the power should be back on tomorrow morning. Good thing, my phone is running low on battery.
@joly re:DD
As I said, they're kind of arbitrary. I guess you're right, DD has been playing longer than I initially remembered. I think I put him in Group B because he tends to only play every few games, so my brain considered him more in that group. Also, not disagreeing with your conclusion here, but I totally would ban Sets right off the bat.
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Post by Crazy Mg on Sept 29, 2013 1:28:58 GMT -8
Words are escaping me because i can't think and because I can't type properly either, which is very frustrating! while typing i keep joining two words together or shortening them so you've been warned in case i've missed one. That said, that's really not an explanation for your earlier thoughts on Riku, and it kind of reads like you didn't have one, and that now you're trying to back off your stated suspicion in an effort to not have to create one. That's not really the case. Riku's post voting me, reminded me of of another game where he was rogue, in that game he tried a lot harder to point fingers at someone else near the chopping block than saying "I'm tired here are my suspiciosns", hence I tend to agree with what DD said, but I'm not sure how much to factor tiredness into it though. I think that this is a solid point in most cases, and I know I've made this argument before (or maybe done it as a rogue before? I don't remember which. maybe both). If the bans were Crazy and Firebolt (I believe the two most rookie players currently here), I'd definitely agree with you. However, they're Sets and DD, who are hardly inexperienced, let alone non-dangerous. The fact that Crazy and Firebolt are both unbanned, however, leads me to the opposite conclusion -- that one of them is a rogue. Let's expand your grouping, based on experience: Group A is Joly, Leif, Luv, Marinated, Tae, and Wrecker, Group B is Me, Sets, DD, and Bunny, and Group C is Firebolt and Crazy. The recent ROMS meta seems to be that rogues ban people from the other groups, in order to prevent the classic "why isn't x banned?" scenario. If both of the rogues were in Group A, I would expect bans targeted at Group C, as per Wrecker's reasoning -- and there is certainly a low-information target in Firebolt if that's what the rogues are going for. The fact that Firebolt hasn't been banned while DD has, when both were roughly equally unable to play up to the time of the last ban, tells me that most likely either Firebolt is a rogue, or Crazy is a rogue. I also don't think both of them are rogues, because then I'd guess the bans would be targeting Group A. Both bans being in Group B makes me think there is one rogue in each of Group A and Group C. Of course, this is not a perfect model for rogue behavior, as different people do things differently (and these groups are slightly arbitrary). For example, I do not think Jolyma is a rogue this game because she tends to not like banning people who haven't had much of a chance to play. I lean towards Crazy being a rogue rather than Firebolt because Firebolt is also in the Low-Information group, and so banning the two others in that group may draw attention to her. I'm not in the low-information group? how did that happen? seriously? Everyone's been saying I'm not explaing yet i'm not low-information? Of those with votes I'm still more suspicious of Riku than marinated and as much as part of me wants to be lynched to just have one less thing to be frustrated over I won't be voting myself. Vote: RikuNot sure how much I'll be around before deadline. Bed time now, have uni tomorrow and have a lab test to study for, lab starts not long after deadline. If i am around it will most likely be while i'm on the bus and so i'll be on my phone. (Wrist flare ups from sleeping on it are by far the worst, longer duration, low level pain that just increases and increases and such a stupid reason for it and i end up getting mad at myself which makes it even worse. ughhhhh.)
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Post by wrecker15 on Sept 29, 2013 6:46:58 GMT -8
Okay, I figure it's better this way. Blue is RP, everything else is not. Good afternoon, sirs and madams.
Could I just take a moment to remind you that the soft deadline proposed by Lady Jolyma is fast approaching, in less than 12 hours in fact. At the current moment, we have five votes, and we require six votes on a single person to secure a lynch today. Discounting Day 1 votes, Ms Luvessy, Mistress firebolt (oh man I'm sorry I have no idea who firebolt is RPing and checking is not a priority atm) have not yet voted during this stay. I am aware that Ms Firebolt seems to be having some issues that must first be settled before she can rejoin us, but I hope for the sake of everyone here that she will be back soon. Ms Luvessy, if you would be so kind, could you give us some idea about who you might be considering as a vote candidate? I get that you may want to keep some cards in your hand, but as few of your cards are revealed to us it does give us, or at least me, trouble with identifying you as a friend.Okay, that was awkward phrasing. Basically, I hope firebolt comes back soon, and I'd really like some idea of where Luv wants to vote because at this point in time I've seen things she's noted, but not an awful lot of who she's suspicious of. I *think* her FoS are Joly and crazy? I'm unsure though. Correct me if I'm wrong. It may be the RP, but at the momentit feels to me like Luv is awfully open to vote just about anyone, and I wouldn't really expect that from Luv in a Day 3 scenario, even if there hasnt been a lynch.] [I also don't know how to phrase this next bit into RP style, so you'll have to do without. Sorry. If I were to look at Riku's ban analysis from a totally neutral standpoint, I'd actually tend to disagree with some of what he said. I know I came up with the experienced vs less experienced players point first, but I'd lump people into two catergories, not three. If I leave my suspicion of Riku aside for now, I actually feel that it's entirely possible for both rogues to be in Riku's stated group A. I basically disagree about the 'there is one rogue in group C' part. I know he hasn't stated it like he thinks it's a fact, just that it's probable, but I don't agree because there is more to consider than just 'this person with this amount of experience got banned'. I may have been using the wrong word to explain my initial analysis. I do think that with experience with the game comes influence. As such, my list probably consitutes the people who I reckon would be more *influential* in the game, in terms of arguing a case and getting people to agree with them. I'd place Riku in that list too, incidentally, but left him out because I'm already suspicious of him for other reasons. This is in answer to tae's statement to me, by the way. The one about how everyone is dangerous in their own way. There is also something I neglected to consider earlier, and that's the matter of who has been playing games recently. When I was still playing before I took a break (dammit that makes me feel sorta old), people also tended to look at bans with regards to who had been banned first recently (I mentioned this with Sets), but also who hasn't been playing recently. *If* we consider that the rogues may have taken this into account, by my reckoning, that leaves me (Haven't played in a long time), Luvessy (Hasn't played for at least 3 games), and Marinated (Banned round 1 last game she played) out for a Day 1/2 ban at least. That does actually factor in to my theory that the rest are being left in as cover for someone, but that's an awful lot of ifs. It's just something to consider though. I may as well as get to Joly's 'why me' question now. She says she gets being on my list for Sets' early ban, so I'll leave that be. Now, DD. I know Riku said that DD being banned makes him inclined to think Joly's innocent, I kinda feel like it goes the opposite way. DD had a low postcount and did mention a few times that he was really busy. It is possible that rogue Joly caught on that and banned someone who specifically stated not being able to commit to the thread much, as compared to someone else who said the same thing. Rogue Joly basically did something similar (banned an inactive or going-inactive) in a previous game. If I pause for a moment and start with the assumption that Joly, and only Joly, is a rogue, and then look through who she might ban, I get the following: I haven't been playing Not Luvessy because Luv hasn't been playing Marinated was banned first recently. Leaves Leif and Tae as cover. Firebolt hasn't been playing. Bunny hasn't been playing. Crazy and Riku are under suspicion. DD hasn't been playing. Of the 'havent been playing' people, DD and Luv were the only people that actually said they were very busy, and I happen to know that Joly has an aversion to banning Luv because Luv used to get banned early a lot. That leaves DD. Of course, that is an *awful* lot to deduce from just two bans, and I'd be a retard to vote Joly based on this. So let's just leave it at 'I'm uncomfortable, but I'm not going to vote here at present' thing. Oh, as to what Riku did in the Cat and Pigeon game? DD was leaning innocent on Riku, and then he got banned. The parallel I drew is that in the Cat and Pigeon game Riku banned yasmi (who thought he was innocent) to confuse the town, I think. Whatever the reason for the ban, it worked and rogue Riku won. But on review, that was a last round thing and I don't think I can count it as a factor at this point in time.] Joly, who do you think is innocent? I'm not getting you, Crazy. So first there was a game where Riku was a rogue and did something that made you suspicious of him, and then Riku was a rogue in another game and did this other thing that made you less suspicious of him? You're not exactly helping your case here >.> Although with regards to what Crazy mentioned, I went back and looked it up, and she's actually right. Rogue Riku in ROMS 16.66 fought a lot harder than Riku did yesterDay. At the same time, I did notice something pretty interesting. Rogue Riku in 16.66 was *very* reactive. Innocent Riku I feel is usually proactive. But Rogue Riku in the Cat and Pigeon game was very proactive. I'm not sure that I'd expect the same thing here. But Riku definitely isn't trying to drive the conversation here as much as he did as a rogue in Cat/Pigeon. So I'm stuck. Dead end. Then I also went back to the Vanilla Filler game in which Tae and Crazy were rogues... And, well, crap. Everything I found in there (Generally posting more when talked to, kinda vague suspicions) points to Crazy being a rogue. But aaaaarrrggghhhh, gut says she is innocent. I am frustrated. Of the three being voted for at the moment, I do not think Riku is a rogue. Crazy I had some gut feeling about before, and Marinated, I'm not sure I've seen enough from to make a judgement.
It's a personal botherment that I don't have strong guilty opinions, but I have strong innocent ones. It's like I have these people I'm pretty sure didn't do it, and then a bunch of possibilities.
I'd be most willing, at the moment, to vote Crazy of the three that are currently being voted. I just... I debated long and hard about this, but decided to put it in. I know Joly said that she doesn't have any strong guilty opinions, but the last line makes it sound like she's already narrowed it down to the three people already being voted, and isn't worrying about anyone else that isn't being voted at the moment. Sure, maybe you don't have *strong* guilty opinions, but you're not even mildly suspicious of anyone? That you might consider voting for, instead of the three people already up? It makes me worry that all three are actually innocent and *Joly* is a rogue. So I don't even know what I'm left with now. Logic defies me when it comes to Riku and tells me that Crazy is a rogue and that Joly may be a rogue. My gut tells me Crazy's not a rogue, and that I should be attempting to lynch Riku just because of the information it gives me with regards to Day 2 and 3. Dammit. I'm going to try and approach this from another angle. Meanwhile, I'll probably post this first. Maybe someone else can make sense of it.
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