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Post by Setsusa on Jan 20, 2014 19:08:49 GMT -8
Can we post now? Can we post pictures? I have this picture of GEESE that were outside my work last week when it was -23 and felt like -39 celsius. We have tons of them in Waterloo and now they're HERE. GO SOMEWHERE ELSE IT'S SUBZERO.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 20, 2014 19:28:05 GMT -8
It doesn't say whether we can talk during the Night…I assume we can, yeah? It's not like anyone wakes up dead, anyway. I'll keep it light, I guess.
I spent the day running errands and having car issues, and I forgot about floating deadlines. I would have voted to Accept, in any case, as I imagine everyone would have.
Tomorrow looks to be a snow day! DC is finally (fingers crossed) getting some real snow after a 3 year drought. And it was nearly 60F today. So weird. Of course I'll have to work but I'll probably get to do it in PJs. I do sort of wish we had a shovel though - this is the first place I've rented where I'd actually need one.
Furare's point about stating your opposition to a team member even if you can't explain it makes sense to me, considering this is our first time playing. Obviously this game will be no different from ROMS in that 'gut' is sometimes going to be best reason people have, especially as we're all trying to figure out what the heck we're doing. (That or dreams. Dreams are the actual Best Reason.)
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Post by wrecker15 on Jan 20, 2014 19:32:16 GMT -8
Talking at Night is allowed
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 20, 2014 19:33:08 GMT -8
FoI Aethera dream joke.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 20, 2014 22:04:16 GMT -8
I have this picture of GEESE Were they friendly geese? Every time I approach a goose it makes this face at me: So they're not like, my favorite animal in the world. It was 79 degrees here in Southern California, which is a relief because it was in the upper 80s all week long last week. Don't you love it when Southern Californians complain about the weather? It's around 60 right now (10PM) and I'm FREEZING lol
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Post by firebolt153 on Jan 20, 2014 22:32:21 GMT -8
Yeah it was 9 when I left work 2 hours ago. Stupid polar vortex.
Geese are creepy
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 21, 2014 3:25:10 GMT -8
A few people from my class are in California doing co-ops with Apple right now. They said "sux2bu you guys, it's warm here".
And no, they were Canadian geese which are notoriously mega-bumheads so they were worse than those geese.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 21, 2014 5:43:55 GMT -8
I got bitten by a goose as a child, at a petting zoo. So not my favorite animal, either.
We're home today, though it has yet to snow, which is always a weird call to make, but the federal government is closed, which gives us good cover with HR up in NY. And they're supposed to get 10 inches anyway so I doubt they'll be open themselves. I've got the blinds open so I can see when it starts, as I work on my couch!
They are saying it'll be -5 to -15 tomorrow morning with the windchill. That'll be fun. Not usual to go into negative temps in DC.
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Post by wrecker15 on Jan 21, 2014 5:57:49 GMT -8
Geez, did I have a brainfart and try to cut the Night period in half? Yes. Yes, I did. Sorry. I edited the post, there're still 12 hours left to Night.
Again, sorry for that mess.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 21, 2014 6:48:11 GMT -8
I got bitten by a goose as a child, at a petting zoo. So not my favorite animal, either. Also bitten by a goose. My brother too. On each occasion we were told to get closer to the geese for a picture. Geese are bastards. Eat all the geese. The big difference between ROMS is no elimination. You don't have to sit out the rest of the game if people don't like your gut vote or because you didn't manage to get an explanation phrased well.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 21, 2014 7:58:34 GMT -8
True Leif, but folks don't have to take your opinion into account if you're going 'gut gut gut' all the time, same as in ROMS. Instead of being lynched, you'll get ignored or dismissed instead, I guess.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 21, 2014 8:11:21 GMT -8
True. It does buy you some time to sort it out and try to explain though, which is less of a deal in ROMS. I'd really hope it leads to people being more forthcoming.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 21, 2014 13:11:55 GMT -8
When I first read down this page of the thread, I got to the bottom wondering what on earth people were trying to explain to geese.
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Post by wrecker15 on Jan 21, 2014 18:13:19 GMT -8
Ugh sorry guys this time I got stuck in a lecture with no signal
Mission failed
Next GM: Leif
Back tonight to format this properly
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 21, 2014 18:21:31 GMT -8
Ok good job team we got one there yeah we did it okay maybe not poop.
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Post by Riku on Jan 21, 2014 21:08:29 GMT -8
Well then. First thoughts:
- FoS for Leif and AL, obviously. - Aeth was the first to propose that plan, so small FoS there as well. - I'm feeling slightly more reject-happy given that result. Missions 2 and 3 are the hardest to pass anyway, so we need to be extra careful for those. - The spies would have to be pretty confident in order to believe that they don't need to bluff the first round. I think. Or maybe not. Everyone's still figuring this game out, I guess, so maybe they just wanted the tangible result immediately.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on Jan 21, 2014 21:45:58 GMT -8
Here's what I'm thinking. Instinctively, I'm like, "well, we shouldn't accept Leif's proposal in case he was the one who sabotaged the mission." Anyone who agrees there will also reject mine. That's not necessarily a bad strategy, but if we leave it at that, we're basically back where we started with a bunch of people we know nothing about as GMs. So we also need to start sleuthing. It's sketchy that Setsusa said: If two out of three on our mission had been spies, failing it would seem much less appealing for them, because you're casting doubt on two of your teammates, not one, which sets the spies up to have worse chances in the future. Given that, it wouldn't make sense for riku to choose a fellow spy and then also fail the mission. Spy-riku could easily have pushed for some choice method of his preference to avoid the situation of having two spies on the very first mission. If Leif and I were both spies, then I could see the mission maybe failing, but if riku and another person were spies? It wouldn't make sense that riku would both choose a fellow spy for the mission and fail the mission, when the same result of failure could be accomplished without compromising another spy. So I think Sets going on this path of speculation could be him wanting to make sure that after the failure, we cast a lot of doubt on everyone on the team. For example, say someone chose that they now think one of me and Leif is a spy, and they were correct. Spy-Sets would want to make sure that the resistance members at least also cast doubt on the innocents who went on the mission. Well, his comment encourages the hypothetical people who suspect one of me/Leif to suspect riku as well, even though it wouldn't make sense for riku to put his teammate on the mission and then fail it. Therefore, regardless of whether the next passed mission comes from Leif, me, or people farther down the list, I don't want to pass a team that includes Setsusa. I think that makes sense.
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Post by Marinated on Jan 22, 2014 2:06:28 GMT -8
Well then. First thoughts: - FoS for Leif and AL, obviously. - Aeth was the first to propose that plan, so small FoS there as well. - I'm feeling slightly more reject-happy given that result. Missions 2 and 3 are the hardest to pass anyway, so we need to be extra careful for those. - The spies would have to be pretty confident in order to believe that they don't need to bluff the first round. I think. Or maybe not. Everyone's still figuring this game out, I guess, so maybe they just wanted the tangible result immediately. Why the FoS on Aethera for that? If anything I would give her a small FoI for it as I think a spy would have just kept quiet as any three chosen would have had a good chance of including a spy. The last point there gives me a bad vibe about Riku. Why would it need confidence? If I was a spy I would have definitely caused the first one to fail if I could. I agree with AL's point that if Riku is a spy then the other two are probably not. (Unless both AL and Riku are spies so they just want us to think that.) I'm not so sure about the comment on Setsusa. It looks like a bunch of wifom and could be an attempt to reduce the odds by excluding an innocent from the missions. I'm beginning to think we should reject any mission which includes the GM.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 22, 2014 3:15:37 GMT -8
I'm beginning to think we should reject any mission which includes the GM. What good do you imagine that will do? (This is an honest question - I really don't see the connection.) I stand by what I said earlier about reducing the degrees of uncertainty in the equation. I don't want to have to speculate about whether the GM is a Spy who chose to send another Spy in addition to which of the mission team were Spies, in the case of a fail. What the Spies did seems remarkably unwise to me, and I'm not going to countenance missions involving those three until I get a better feel for everyone. That's the common sense response, to me. - Riku's acceptance of Aethera's solution could be a Spy leaping on the chance to frame the two next GMs and make us less effective. Could just be a Resistance member who didn't know what else to do. - Leif hasn't accused me of anything based on my word choice yet, so he's probably a Spy. (That's a joke; really, I don't have any particular reason to think Leif a Spy. He seems mellower than usual but that is easily explained by not being sure how to approach this new game.) - AL is... well, give me a few more days and we'll see what my gut says. My main difficulty is that I don't know to what extent people's previous ROMS behaviour is even relevant. Gah.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 22, 2014 5:55:03 GMT -8
Here's what I'm thinking. Instinctively, I'm like, "well, we shouldn't accept Leif's proposal in case he was the one who sabotaged the mission." Anyone who agrees there will also reject mine. That's not necessarily a bad strategy, but if we leave it at that, we're basically back where we started with a bunch of people we know nothing about as GMs. So we also need to start sleuthing. It's sketchy that Setsusa said: If two out of three on our mission had been spies, failing it would seem much less appealing for them, because you're casting doubt on two of your teammates, not one, which sets the spies up to have worse chances in the future. Given that, it wouldn't make sense for riku to choose a fellow spy and then also fail the mission. Spy-riku could easily have pushed for some choice method of his preference to avoid the situation of having two spies on the very first mission. If Leif and I were both spies, then I could see the mission maybe failing, but if riku and another person were spies? It wouldn't make sense that riku would both choose a fellow spy for the mission and fail the mission, when the same result of failure could be accomplished without compromising another spy. So I think Sets going on this path of speculation could be him wanting to make sure that after the failure, we cast a lot of doubt on everyone on the team. For example, say someone chose that they now think one of me and Leif is a spy, and they were correct. Spy-Sets would want to make sure that the resistance members at least also cast doubt on the innocents who went on the mission. Well, his comment encourages the hypothetical people who suspect one of me/Leif to suspect riku as well, even though it wouldn't make sense for riku to put his teammate on the mission and then fail it. Therefore, regardless of whether the next passed mission comes from Leif, me, or people farther down the list, I don't want to pass a team that includes Setsusa. I think that makes sense. This is going to suck on a phone. Essentially I was saying if the first three GMs are spies they would have a massive advantage and not have to do anything too risky early on to likely get 2 of the 3 rounds. I then pointed out if the mission failed then riku as gm or the people sent could be a spy. This applies whether the gm is sent or not, but more so if they are. If Riku is a spy then I don't think Leif or AL are because I agree there is no point to have 2 spies on that mission. If Riku isn't a spy and both Leif and AL are, its much more debatable to say passing the mission is advantageous for the spies. Lastly I don't think AL would make that much of a jump as a spy. Slight FoI. Therefore, I would say 1 of riku Al and Leif is a spy, not 2 and I currently don't think its AL.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 22, 2014 6:47:52 GMT -8
Apparently I have too many tassels (on my hat) to be a gentleman.
I don't really have anything else to add to the conversation, but this amused me.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 22, 2014 7:52:11 GMT -8
Thinking about it, I'm inclined to believe that the most likely scenario for the first mission failing is the GM being a spy. It'd be particularly clever if Joly happened to be a Rogue.
In thinking about how any info we've gained from day 1 could be used to fill out a team, I'm somewhat stymied. Junking the first 3 and moving on has a pretty low chance of success. The rogue ratio, assuming one in the first three, would be 3:4 which is no better than it was and we're picking one more person. Obviously you don't want to keep a rogue. I'd be willing to not be on the mission if that's thought best. My first blush is something like Me, AL, Joly and Aeth and if that doesn't work start picking from among the last 5, but that may be making too many assumptions. I'm still trying to logic through with what little we have.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 22, 2014 8:18:02 GMT -8
You know, what I'd generally like to see is an idea of who everyone would nominate given what we have now.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 22, 2014 9:02:22 GMT -8
When we decided to send the first 3 GMs on the mission, what were we hoping to achieve? What are we going to do with what we've learned? I think it's likely that only one of the three is a Spy, but then I've already proved that I don't know what I'm talking about, so maybe they would fail a mission with 2 or 3 of them being Spies. Who knows? I don't trust anyone so personally I would like to be on the mission because I trust myself. So there. I'm actually slightly concerned about Leif but I'm damned if I can say why exactly. Until Marinated responds to my question I can't really say how I feel there. I'd really like to see more from people before I can say.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 22, 2014 9:05:20 GMT -8
So who would you send, Furare?
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 22, 2014 9:15:57 GMT -8
I'd really like to see more from people before I can say. Patience. Edit: Well, I accidentally attributed a quote to Leif when it was me that said it so I am clearly not that bright right now.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 22, 2014 9:53:30 GMT -8
Thinking about it, I'm inclined to believe that the most likely scenario for the first mission failing is the GM being a spy. This was my gut reaction to seeing the result. If all three were spies, I think they would have passed the mission, because to cast doubt on 3 out of 4 team members would be a really bad first move in my opinion. I would imagine if Leif or AL (or both) were spies they would have motive for passing the mission, in the hopes that their mission proposals would be accepted. Especially given the fact that the conversation in the thread seemed to indicate that we'd use this first mission to vet the next two GMs. Then again, there's WIFOM there because if Leif or AL (or both) are spies I'm confident that they would have worked that out, and they could fail it and then cast suspicion on Riku. So basically I'm left mistrusting all three. AL, I don't see how you worked around to FoS Sets there. It's a conclusion that doesn't follow from the mission result, to my mind. You know, what I'd generally like to see is an idea of who everyone would nominate given what we have now. I don't think I have a good enough feel on anyone other than myself to really answer that, because what I have now is doubts. I'm aware that isn't helpful, but there it is. Hopefully as the day's discussion continues this will change.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 22, 2014 10:15:50 GMT -8
I think we need to take time for mission two. This game is favored to the resistance as it goes on. If we pass mission 2 or 3 we win the game, there is no rule against using the exact same teams.
Probability wise there are two spies in the first five players down the list. Even if Riku is the only spy in mission 1 we still fail mission 2 by probability.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on Jan 22, 2014 10:35:42 GMT -8
This is really weird, I don't see how everyone is drawing the conclusion that riku is the most likely spy. Not that I'm certain Leif is, or that I want suspicion on myself, but since the major purpose of sending our trio on the first mission was to either get a point for the resistance, or learn about me and Leif, assuming riku was the spy seems oddly unbased on any data we got from the mission and risks helping the spies by allowing the real spy a chance at passing their mission. In Leif's case, he thinks riku is the spy because I would have passed the mission? I explicitly said that I thought spies should fail missions. I agree with him that riku being the spy would be the best scenario for the bad guys, but I don't necessarily think that makes it the most likely one. In Bunny's case, there are three people under suspicion, one says "I think it was that guy" and she simply agrees? And my suspicion on Sets doesn't make sense if riku is a spy, but I'm not clear why it doesn't if Leif were the spy. You're certain enough of it being riku to send me again? If we follow this plan, and the mission doesn't work again, not only are we one round away from losing, but we haven't actually learned about Joly and Aeth because we re-sent 2 of the 3 people from the first failed mission, and the spy could easily have been you or me. Anyway, I may need to take some time to contemplate if this is really what I think, since I was put on my guard by some comments and jumped to some conclusions. But since the first two days of classes have been snowed out, I'm not too tight on time at the moment. For a mission, I'd send myself, firebolt (don't think she would have volunteered herself so quickly as a spy), perhaps Aethera, and then I'm not decided on who the last would be.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 22, 2014 11:08:41 GMT -8
I don't know if Sets understands the game - if we reject Leif's mission the buck passes to AL and *we are still on Mission 2*. Apologies if you did know that, it just doesn't look like it from your posts.
I am shattered and I have no idea if I'll be good for anything approaching rational thought this evening.
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