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Post by Aethera on Jan 27, 2014 8:41:01 GMT -8
...I would also imagine that Aethera is the Spy from Mission #2; it's a subtle thing, but her actions towards the end of the deadline period left me feeling a little harried into making a decision and also doubting of Sets. That's interesting, because the way you disappeared, in conjunction with the way you seemed to be prompting me without offering an opinion (first you asked why I felt the way I did about Sets, prompting me to reexamine, then your equivocating comment on Sets felt very Wizard of Oz 'you could go this way or that way') made ME feel pressured at deadline time. And to boot the reexamine made me feel better about Sets, which is why I voted Accept. If you were more doubting of Sets after my comments, why vote Accept at all? It really felt like you wanted me to decide first, either a)because you are a Spy and wanted a lock on Accept, plus you'd gain the ability to say I lead you to this or b)because you were too unsure/scared to make a decision, so left me to make it. B does not seem logical given that it's Furare I'm talking about here. Re-reading it today, it feels like I was trying to discuss it and you were just trying to get me to make a decision. You also a few posts earlier mentioned me in a way that now looks like giving yourself room to suspect me. Now of course, it turns out that we both decided to post at about the same time, which only makes me feel slightly better. I don't feel comfortable with you at all right now. I do think I could have been wrong about Sets, as well. He is reading as Setsy, but I can't recall how his behavior differed as a Rogue, really. The biggest thing right now is his certainty about Leif being a Spy that really doesn't seem wise to me at all, from an innocent. If it was anyone but Sets saying it, it would be a giant red flag instead of a moderate one, and I think he knows that. Can he get away with something by just being Sets? He just suggested sending any of the previous people besides Leif, and I do agree with Furare, funnily enough, that it's unlikely 3 of the 4 folks who haven't yet been on a mission are Spies, or conversely that none of the 5 non-Leif already-sent people aren't. It seems like an oversimplistic view for Sets to take. Oddly, out of all of this, Leif comes out looking best to me. I see actual reasons in their posts to suspect Furare and Sets, but without a reaction from Leif yet (preview edit, ok, a couple of lines there, not a full reaction yet), coupled with the numbers game, he still doesn't feel very Spyish to me. I do wonder at the confidence on display from another person now, in his short reaction. You were pretty sure it would work, and Sets seems to be sure too, when meanwhile Furare and I were both nervous and dithering (or pretending to be nervous and dithering, whatever?) Further Preview edit, Furare: So then according to Wrecker, the Spies can't win unless they guess the Double Agent? That seems like an odd way to balance a game. I'm pretty surprised that you thought it would be so easy based on her comments that you're frustrated by the lack of instant clarity. You've now mentioned it in 2 posts. It's so early in the Day. Very weird. And actually, this puts your comments about learning enough from failures and successes earlier in the game into a different view...you've been thinking about that advice the whole time? That helps me feel a little better about you, but man, still weird. And Happy Birthday AL! I am the absolute worst at remembering or noticing people's birthdays. So Leif, if you feel like following me around and reminding me of people's birthdays, that would be outstanding
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 27, 2014 9:17:09 GMT -8
Definitely vote: Reject on that. Marinated was basically gut FoI for me, but even if Leif disagrees, that doesn't make me a spy since on a mission where only one saboteur is needed for failure, spy!me would hardly want to throw two on there. That's weird. So feels like an excuse to take me off the team-maybe since a team with two people from the first mission would be less likely to pass. Admittedly, I'm more than slightly paranoid at this point. Not inclined to accept Sets on there at the moment anyhow. I went back to double check my impression here. This quote: Is sorta what stuck out to me a bit. I know it doesn't say replace you with Furare, but that was sort of the thought I got, which left me wondering about why Marinated. So yeah, that's what was on my mind there.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 27, 2014 9:18:13 GMT -8
I feel like you're asking me a question, but I'm not real sure what it is.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 9:58:46 GMT -8
b)because you were too unsure/scared to make a decision, so left me to make it. B does not seem logical given that it's Furare I'm talking about here. We've met before, right? "Too unsure to make a decision" describes me about as well as any other phrase I could come up with. And besides, after what you said, what I was waiting for was Sets - and it seems that we both concluded more or less simultaneously that he wasn't going to show in time. Which is amusing if nothing else. With regards one of your other points, when faced with someone like Sets, I'm never entirely sure what to think. He seemed to appreciate my calling him "unaccountable", and I stand by that. 'Sides, hedging is something I do. Surely people know that by now. Oh, and yes, Wrecker did tell me (well prior to the start of the game, I should stress) that Resistance is very difficult for the Spies to win unless they guess the Double Agent, which is why I'm surprised that it doesn't seem to be so. Matters of game balance tend to weigh on my mind even when I'm playing, I'm afraid. Curse of having modded - however many games it is now. I don't even know anymore. I'm pretty sure that birthdays appear on the forum calendar, for those people who have told the forums when their birthday is.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 27, 2014 10:07:57 GMT -8
I don't understand I was pretty sure that would work. Care to explain Aeth?
We are headed for a loss due to a lack of patient ce and thoroughness. Leif pushed for a mission all day when one was not necessary. Information can be gleaned from seeing the teams GMs propose. A better strategy may be to have GMs propose teams at the start of the day and got then. Instead we've seen the opinions of only tei GMs and have two fails.
This isn't ROMS but its been played like it. Early game is spy advantageous while the longer the game goes whether missions are sent or not the favor falls to the resistance. I'm sure the spies realize this and with how hard Leif pressed to get a team sent yesterDay I believe he is a spy.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 11:06:19 GMT -8
Personally I think we should keep rejecting missions until we think we know who the Spies are. The longer the game goes on, the more likely people with something to hide are to slip up. Everyone does eventually.
Yes, perhaps we should just have "GM posts team, gives reasons" followed by discussion of and voting on the proposal. With Reject as the default position. We need to be careful now.
Do you disagree with my logic, Sets, or do you believe one of the failed missions had more than one Spy on the away team?
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 27, 2014 11:29:31 GMT -8
I can see the argument for it. Can you see the positives in just Leif being a spy from the spy point of view?
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 27, 2014 12:14:52 GMT -8
That last comment of Furare's: That may just be the difference between the original and adaptation. I also don't know how many times the game starts with 2 failures either.
To your suppositions. I don't think that the spies would ever set up a situation where you could pick 5 people and win the game that easily. Of course, if we want to play WIFOM, they could gamble that we'd never accept such a possibility being left to us. It all depends on how far you want to go with 'I know that you know that I know that you know...' But, that's an awfully risky gamble to take in a new type of game, so I'm going with they wouldn't do that.
However, I do not think that let's Leif off the hook. He was the common factor. And I think that throwing one spy under the bus if necessary would not harm the spy team, especially if we just assume that there was only 1 spy in both missions. I still believe that Mission 1 would not have failed had there been more than 1 spy then, so that leaves us with mission 2. I think that there would be 2 spies in mission 2, if Leif was a spy, just in case we decide to just send the ones Not Leif.
On the other hand, Leif was behaving in a very pro town manner, IMO, when he was GM, which then leads me to wonder who in mission 2 is most likely to be a spy. These are the circles my mind is running in.
Furare, why do you think AL is the spy over Riku? I'm sure you explained it before, but I can't find it.
Happy birthday AL!
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Post by Aethera on Jan 27, 2014 12:17:57 GMT -8
@sets, that was directed at Leif.
Leif, it was more a comment, but I guess: "why were you so sure? What do you think now?" would have been the questions.
Furare, I get that we were both waiting for Sets all day, it was the later stuff you said that made me feel like you were trying to get me to do something instead of you, as I've described. Meanwhile, you haven't mentioned specifically what I said to make you feel harried, just 'actions at end of day'. And also, I don't really see you as excessively dithery. Maybe it's my experience with you on the mod side. You have a very strong voice in my head all the time, and you don't seem to be short of opinions generally, and that isn't what I saw at end of day. Obviously, we're all a little unsure here, but it really didn't strike me as very Furare the way the end of the day went down yesterday.
Sets, it's frustrating for you to say we're not being thorough when you disappeared for the majority of a day cycle, and have only dashed off brief posts when you've been here. If you want thoroughness, you could start it and then criticize those who don't follow your lead, you know? And a few hours ago you were suggesting sending a team with a decent degree of confidence, and said you weren't going to 'hold a hesitant stance' yet now you're saying wait and consider. In other words, you're being inconsistent. Finally, asking Furare if she sees the positives instead of telling us what you think they are, especially in the face of the thoroughness comment, makes it feel like you're asking others to play the game for you. Or perhaps that you don't see the positives either and are hoping we'll come up with some for you to use. "Right, that's what I was thinking." I think you should answer your own question with specifics, myself.
I feel like half of us are doing 95% the talking. Where is everyone else? Specifically Joly, Marinated, Fire, AL? Bunny, I know you're sick so when you're better I'd like to hear from you too.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 27, 2014 12:19:00 GMT -8
And Sorry Joly, I didn't preview there, so I'll take you off the quiet list for now
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 27, 2014 12:30:41 GMT -8
Oh wow, I missed an entire page. I am not used to the next page button being at the top Let me see what else was said... I guess we can just keep rejecting teams just to see who is proposed, but, at what point do we stop doing that? I'm not sure how you expect people to slip up in this sort of game, I guess. And to play Devil's Advocate, doesn't that risk exposing the double agent just as much as it does the spies? More so I'd think, , since they'll be able to see who objects the most to certain combinations.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 27, 2014 12:43:18 GMT -8
Sorry I thought the positives could be inferred from previous posts being that people are generally unlikely to want to send similar people and would rather try using the four not sent people. Based on this I think that there is absolutely no chance that there is less than two spies of the four people that have not yet been sent on missions because I believe Leif to be a spy. His position would have allowed him to set up a scenario where spies ate mixed between those who have and haven't gone on missions.
I am less inclined to think only one spy is in the group of six people that have been on missions as I think on it more. Which can very well cone off as inconsistent, bit that may just be that I boldly state my present opinions too often.
Re: thoroughness, as expected its been pointed out I don't have much of a leg to stand on as my contribution had essentially been an argument with Leif and then a disappearing act. Evidently it was enough cause two people to wait to vote despite having range over most others opinions. Regardless I was more or less getting at what you ended with, this has been a very silent game from quite a few people. (Myself included in a sense).
So I will pose this: does anyone feel there are less than two spies in the people who haven't gone on missions is: fire, bunny, Joly and Mari? If so, why. Do you think it is likely there are 3 spies in that group or not? Who are your current spies?
For me: 2 in that group, I would say Joly is the one I most think isn't a spy, so I haven't ruled out there being 3 there. I think Leif is a spy and beyond that I have Furare fire and Al as likelies.
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 27, 2014 12:53:44 GMT -8
I think it would be very ballsy to have had all of the spies in there. But if Leif is a spy, there is a possibility that Mission 2 had a second spy on it, just to give some cover. I think if Riku is a spy, then he'd be one to propose failing Mission 1 with multiple spies, especially if Leif is a fellow spy.
I think of the 4 not yet sent, 1 or 2 is a spy, but not 3.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 13:28:19 GMT -8
Jolyma - Yeah, there's the risk that the DA will slip up. But if we don't spend as long as possible forcing the Spies to talk so they will potentially make mistakes we lose anyway. I'd rather win the last three missions and then lose because the Spies found the DA than lose in - I want to say straight sets because Australian Open tennis - because we were insufficiently circumspect. Aethera - I find it difficult to respond to what you've said about me because it seems like you're working from a... not entirely accurate idea of what I'm like as a player. Just - if you think dithering is unlike me, then you're wrong. And you're not going to draw the right conclusions. I don't know why what I was saying at the end of the day would make you feel like I was trying to get you to do something; in this post, I'm actually encouraging you not to do anything if you're having second thoughts. I'm just getting... impressions of people and not really knowing why. To be honest, I don't find this game particularly amusing, I don't want to spend that much time on it, so I'm not. I guess that makes me sound pretty Sets-ish, but it's the truth. Of the people not sent, I'd say probably 2 are Spies. I don't know which two. Probably not Fire and Marinated together because they're both quiet? But that's as far as I can really go with that, I think. I don't see any particular reason to think Joly isn't a Spy. I guess that despite what Wrecker may've said about bluffing and game balance and stuff, there's really no incentive for a Spy not to sabotage a mission they're on regardless of how many Spies are on it. My head hurts.
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Post by Riku on Jan 27, 2014 16:52:37 GMT -8
Warning: This post is written from the perspective of a non-spy Riku. Some of the logic may not quite make sense to those of you less confident of my innocence. To the DA, if this makes sense, use the word "fruitcake" in your next post. Just kidding. Don't. The more I think about it, the more I agree that it does not make sense for Leif to have failed both missions. If Leif were a spy, him being spy does not lend itself any more towards failing the first mission than if AL were spy, so from a pure procedural standpoint, AL and Leif are equal likelihood for spy after the first mission. Next comes mission 2, with Leif at the helm. Spy-Leif is in sort of a sticky spot. If he fails the mission again, that's a very risky play. The spies want to avoid giving information. If the town "figures out" that Leif is a spy, whether he slips up or whatever, we know with some degree of certainty that most if not all of the other people on the missions are innocent. That, as Furare explained, is a very beneficial thing to know for those picking teams. I think the spies would want to avoid the potential of that knowledge at all costs, and they certainly wouldn't be afraid to bluff by passing a mission in order to do so. So if Leif were spy, the best plan seems to be for them to succeed mission 2. That didn't happen. In conjunction with my previous suspicion of AL, that leads me to conclude that AL is more likely to be a spy and Leif is more likely to be innocent. If AL is a spy rather than Leif, Mission 2 is more interesting -- AL isn't on it. That means, assuming Leif is innocent, the spy on the mission 2 team is one of Aeth, Furare, or Sets. I've already explained why I think Sets is innocent, and I'm leaning even more towards it being Aeth over Furare after Furare's post here, which uses much the same logic and conclusions that I follow in this post. Regardless of who it is, I think we can safely assume that there is 1 and only 1 spy in the first mission, and we can guess that there is probably (although less certainly) that there is 1 and only 1 spy in mission 2. Riding on these assumptions, that means that of the people who have not gone on any missions (Joly, Firebolt, Marinated, and Bunny), 2 of them are spies. I think that in this instance, it's easier to guess who is innocent. First off, I think Firebolt is innocent. I already made this case earlier, but I think that her lowered amount of participation is much more likely to be a symptom of being innocent in a new game than a symptom of being a spy attempting to "lay low". Partly because I think it's much more intimidating and confusing coming into a new game mode alone when you can't trust half the thread than with a team of 3 other people, and partly because "laying low" really doesn't help a spy out much this game, and could even be detrimental. The goal for a spy is to be picked for missions, not to avoid getting lynched. It's hard to be picked for missions if nobody has an impression of you. As for the other three... I'm having hard time convincing myself 2 of them are rogues, which is starting to make me doubt my earlier conclusions. At the moment, in ranking from least spy to most spy, I'd go Bunny, Joly, then Marinated. Bunny is reading fairly innocent to me. But that leaves Joly and Marinated. Joly is also reading fairly albeit slightly less innocent to me. And Marinated's game-existential angst makes me tempted to think she's innocent. So. I'm not sure where I've landed on that, but those are my thoughts at the moment. Roughly in order of most suspicious to least suspicious: AhoyLindsay Aethera Marinated Jolyma Furare Bunnylaroo Leif firebolt Setsusa ---------- Sets, I see your point. If Leif is a spy, it does make sense for him to push for a mission. However, it doesn't NOT make sense for him to do so as an innocent. B->A does not imply A->B. Rectangles and squares and whatnot. As a former GM myself, I can understand why he would want a mission as an innocent. It's the one part of the game where you're in control, and for just about half of the rest of the game the person in charge is working against you. It makes sense to want to send a team yourself rather than let the turn pass to someone you don't know if you can trust.
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Post by Marinated on Jan 27, 2014 17:39:48 GMT -8
I'm currently thinking Leif, Firebolt, Aethera and Riku for the spies. In the case of Aethera it's mainly a gut read. the others less so. I'll try to explain more later.
I'm actually finding the the new forum layout quite difficult to concentrate on and the longer posts in particular have made me feel a bit queasy when trying to read them. Increasing the print size has helped a bit but not entirely.
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Post by AhoyLindsay on Jan 27, 2014 19:38:33 GMT -8
Hey everyone, First of all, regardless of anything else, I'm really really sorry for not being around much lately. No particular excuse, just caught up in the school life. Anyway, I regret that because although I was reading along for the last page or so, I didn't really make the effort to try to stop the mission from passing even though I voted reject; and to some extent there's much less point if you're not going to try to get other people on board. However, if we win this mission (whether it passes toDay or in the future), we can win all the others-because if there's no spy in the 4 we send this time, there can't be 2 in a group of 5 created by adding someone at random to the first 4. I think that if wrecker said this game is tough for the spies, that's what she meant, because otherwise the set-up seems to lean in their favor if results so far are anything to judge by. I see from reading that there's a lot of suspicion on me from Aethera, riku, and others, but I'm not going to respond to it right now because I don't entirely recall where it comes from. I'll read back and check on that. However, that's okay. I plan to propose a mission in short order, and if you don't trust me/are a spy with ulterior motives/only like to accept missions on certain days of the week, I suggest not voting for it. While I want my suggestion to be passed, I agree that either now or in future runs of this game, we need to get in the habit of rejecting things more or we are consistently going to run into the 2-points-down situation we're encountering this time around, or worse. Anyway, my current idea is that we all go around in a circle, and everyone say if you're a bad guy or not. my current thoughts are the following (brief rundown, not super detailed). We have these people, and I need to pick 4. I'm innocent and therefore need to pick 3. I intend to put myself on my proposed mission. Riku, Leif-Riku or Leif, riku or Leif? Both? That would be interesting with riku's logic in his last post. Doubt it though. Lean towards riku between the two based on him being more low-key in round 2 compared to Leif-would be advantageous for a spy in his position. Jolyma-A little hard to read, had been thinking lately innocent. She seems to be having many minor strategy disagreements with people, whereas I think that as a spy she at least would avoid such. Aethera-Aethera essentially encouraged me not to FoI her by suspecting me for doing so. I wonder if that's an action a spy would take. Then I realize, yes, a spy would take that action to gain FoI from others. Also see Furare comments. Up in the air, still thinking probably resistance. Depends in part on the riku vs Leif decision. Firebolt-I didn't really comment on her yet, but out of the people who haven't been sent on missions so far, I see her among the more likely resistance, for essentially the reasons that riku said. Bunnylaroo- Welcome thoughts from others. Furare-The stuff that went down between her and Aethera at the end of last round was weird, as is the strong focus on it this round. Not sure what that says about the two of them. Don't understand why she hasn't been sharing with the rest of us strategies that she's discussed with wrecker. Marinated-Still have a gut feel of innocent-I'm very interested by the response I got from saying that before, though-nobody really seemed to be proposing her as a probable spy, then I suggested her for a mission and there was backlash. Check who from? Could mean I am wrong on her, could mean other motivations, could mean difference of opinion. Could mean there was suspicion on her before and I overlooked it or disagreed and forgot, but unlikely. Setsusa-Still think he's a spy, but doubt that he's the only spy on the last mission. Anyway, I know there are things I haven't responded to that I meant to/need to, but I really have to do some homework for the rest of the evening. I appreciate all the birthday wishes and intend propose a mission tomorrow night. Bye!
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 28, 2014 1:40:15 GMT -8
AL, you misunderstand me. Wrecker didn't share any "strategies" with me. We discussed how the game usually works, but she hasn't told me how to play it. I have preconceptions, but not strategies - and apparently those preconceptions are about as useful as pre-knowledge of Live Mafia is to a ROMS newbie.
Sets - about your earlier question; no, I don't see any reason for the Spies to set it up so that Leif and only Leif is the Spy from the first two Missions - but I think you've realised that yourself.
I'm frustrated because I don't think I've seen enough of... too many people to really say one way or the other.
I don't know if Riku agreeing with me is suspicious, but I find it weird that he seems to think that my logic agreeing with him is a sign that I'm innocent? Or am I misreading that part?
Marinated, would changing the default font for whatever skin it is you use help with your forum difficulties, do you think? It's 10pt Verdana at the moment, which isn't the nicest font but it's what the forum comes with as standard. I could easily alter it for all skins or just the one you use.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 28, 2014 7:45:18 GMT -8
I'm alive. I need to catch up. Had a bit of a life explosion so hopefully I'll be able to post something by tonight.
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 28, 2014 8:25:07 GMT -8
I still don't understand how you think spies will slip up Furare. It's not like we can use most normal tells in this game. Of course, I'm rather enjoying the break from the usual tells, you don't seem to be I also disagree with Riku's assessment of Firebolt is most likely innocent because she's quiet. Firebolt is most often always quiet, regardless of her alignment. Even when playing with teammates, she doesn't want to make mistakes. I think her low activity is, at best, a null tell.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 28, 2014 9:01:15 GMT -8
Because I felt pretty confident in the innocent reads. The one in which I was least confident in was Furare, but in returning and looking through the end of the day, I feel a little bit better about her than I did. That means I need to do some reevaluation on Sets and you, Aeth. My guy says Sets, but I dunno.
I've been trying to work out a post similar to Riku's up there running through different iterations, but keep coming to a stop because I've got little idea what to make of Joly, Marinated and FB. Also, Bunny but to a lesser extent. I feel like I need to read more there. It puts me in a bit of a bind in terms of constructing or evaluating a hypothetical team because I'm not really comfortable with any of them at the moment.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 28, 2014 11:18:49 GMT -8
Furare, I agree that it's better to win 3 rounds and then lose due to a DA guess than lose outright. I mean, at least then it's a technical loss, and we did the best we could. I actually dislike the DA role period - seems cruel to whoever it is. I don't know why what I was saying at the end of the day would make you feel like I was trying to get you to do something; in this post, I'm actually encouraging you not to do anything if you're having second thoughts. I'm just getting... impressions of people and not really knowing why. To be honest, I don't find this game particularly amusing, I don't want to spend that much time on it, so I'm not. I guess that makes me sound pretty Sets-ish, but it's the truth. Rejecting would qualify as 'something' to me. I felt like you wanted me to decide "ok, Accepting" or "ok, Rejecting" before you did anything. And by the way, I've given you far more explanation for my notes than you've given me about my 'day end actions'. So it's frustrating to have you ask again. You have been coming across like you're not enjoying it. I'm sorry you're not. I get it. This game is stressful for us all, I think - no one seems to be having much of a lark. I guess perhaps many of us won't try it again. I know I'm pretty irritated myself, at present, I think because just like the last game I was in, it's mostly Gut Aethera and vague 'actions'. Lord knows I enjoy arguing, but I can't argue that, so I'm just left sitting here feeling frustrated. I don't really want to do more, but I feel like there's no point continuing if we all walk away, so here we go. Riku: I don't follow this. First, you keep hammering this 'Spies giving us information' thing when there's not definitive info on the scale of Bans and Lynches in this game. You're making a LOT of assumptions, especially as none of us have played before, so some actions might not seem as risky until after the fact. It's why there was so much discussion of How Many Spies on Mission 1. Who knows if the Spies are thinking the way you are? I don't see why Spy Leif wouldn't put another Spy on Mission 2. Or if there were 2 Spies on Mission 1, since they couldn't change that Leif would be the GM on Mission 2, that they wouldn't take the risk of Failing anyway, considering we've never played before, and have him make sure he was the only Spy on Mission 2 in order to preserve some Spies with less to discuss about them. Most of us are dealing in probabilities and you seem to be a step beyond that. There's a leap in my head from 'this is most likely' to 'we can safely assume'. Perhaps YOU can more readily assume since you think Leif is innocent and you 'know' you are. I think Safely is an overstate either way. But that's a bigger leap for the rest of us. Your post is written in a manner that makes it seem like you have the right answer, and that you arrived at it by logic, when actually you're just setting up guesses as true premises. I also don't like that you just annexed Furare's post. Sets - your last post is more what I was asking for. I grant your point that your view is evolving, but it's only clear that it is when you post reasoning, as you've done here. Your post has helped me feel a bit better about you relative to others. I think it's unlikely that there are 3 spies in the last 4 people, just probability wise. There is only 1 scenario where that could be true - Leif is the only spy in the 1st 2 missions. Whereas there are multiple combos that could lead to 2 or even just 1 spy in the 'last 4' group (which I am now calling the Virgins). I think if Leif is a spy (and I'm not leaning that way, honestly, though I'm annoyed with Riku's way of presenting assumptions as fact), that he had one other spy with him on one of the first 2 missions. Of Joly, Bunny, Fire and Marinated, I think Bunny, Fire and Marinated could be classified as Quiet, so I think 2 quiet people could be Spies, in contrast to Furare's note. I mean, half the game has needed to be prompted to post at this point. Bunny has given a reason - she's sick, and apparently her life has exploded (sorry again Bunny, that sucks). Fire, not much at all. Marinated, the thread makes her queasy but she's been reading enough to have opinions, so I'm not sure why she's not posting them. She could easily compose a post elsewhere and copy it in, and no one is saying it has to be quote-riddled. It's hard to have any current opinion on Bunny. Right now I'm feeling ok on Joly, who seems to be honestly trying to figure things out, and not so good on Marinated. For Fire, at first her quietness was bothering me but at this point, with barely any presence in the game, I lean innocent. I really imagine a Spy would get pressure from other Spies to show up, and that she would show if asked by them. Marinated, I'm sorry long posts make you queasy, and that I've just written another. Perhaps printing would be best? Or copying into Word and changing the font? Annoying I know. But the fact that you come, post 2 lines, and claim you're not here much due to the forum format when you've clearly read enough to have reasons behind 3 of your 4 suspicions is frustrating, particularly when you haven't explained your suspicions much all game. Obviously I can't respond to a gut read, but no explanation for the rest leaves folks unable to respond to you or agree with you or anything. I do think it's possible there are 3 spies among the first 2 missions but less likely than the 2 and 2 possibility. Mostly that's down to control issues - Riku took a suggestion offered him on Day 1 - if he'd done something else he'd have had to justify it, and I don't think a Spy would want to be on record with a strong opinion on Day 1. So he might have gotten stuck with 2. I also think that in Mission 2, leaving my own innocence out for a second, if Leif is innocent, he could have gotten unlucky - we were talking about how if there was only 1 Spy on Mission 1, 3/7 remaining players would be Spies, and Leif took 3 of those 7. If Leif is a Spy, he could have taken another Spy with him on 2 even if there were 2 on Mission 1, but I think that's less likely - it does feel like too much exposure, as the people on the missions ARE getting the most scrutiny. Currently I think it's more likely 1 of AL/Riku and 1 of Sets/Furare. One theory that hit me as I was re-reading just now is AL/Leif setting up their interaction over Marinated at Day's end, plus Sets or Furare, or just AL/Leif and then 2 in the 4 Virgins. But I can't figure out why they would bother. It's hard to figure out what the Ideal Situation for the Spies would be when we've never done this and people seem to have a lot of different opinions toDay. I have several likely possibilities in my head, unlike Riku. My next move is to take a look at the interactions between Furare, AL, Sets and Riku in the thread, and see if that helps me make some choices. I'd also like to examine the 4 Virgins but since most of them haven't said much lately, I can't really. Joly seems ok to me right now - honestly trying to figure things out - but since she's the only one of them posting much, that may be what's making me feel she's ok. I'm fine rejecting the next mission so we get more time to let them post - Bunny at least has some RL stuff going on preventing her. Right now I need to walk away.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 28, 2014 11:38:07 GMT -8
I think Furare is a spy primarily based on her interactions with Aethera and the reality that if Aethera is a spy the amount of try is too damn high.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Jan 28, 2014 14:32:24 GMT -8
I have a sodding earache and this isn't happening tonight.
Joly, if you think "slipping up" just means "tells" which are for the most part utter garbage even in ROMS, then you're wrong. If you let people talk for long enough, eventually you can figure out if they're genuine or not. That's not waiting for tells, that's listening to (or in this case reading) what people say.
I don't even have printable words to reply to Sets' last post so I'm not going to bother.
If I had proper logical reasons for why I feel certain people are more likely to be Spies, I would give them. If I didn't give any, I don't have any.
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Furare
Game Moderator
ROMS Encyclopaedia
Posts: 502
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Post by Furare on Jan 28, 2014 14:34:28 GMT -8
Also, Aeth, I didn't ask you anything. "I don't know why you said I did X when from my perspective it was Y" is a comment, not a question.
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Post by Riku on Jan 28, 2014 14:59:56 GMT -8
I don't know if Riku agreeing with me is suspicious, but I find it weird that he seems to think that my logic agreeing with him is a sign that I'm innocent? Or am I misreading that part? It's not the fact that your logic agrees with mine (although that may be how I worded it), it's that I don't think it's logic a spy would use. I don't follow this. First, you keep hammering this 'Spies giving us information' thing when there's not definitive info on the scale of Bans and Lynches in this game. You're making a LOT of assumptions, especially as none of us have played before, so some actions might not seem as risky until after the fact. It's why there was so much discussion of How Many Spies on Mission 1. Who knows if the Spies are thinking the way you are? I don't see why Spy Leif wouldn't put another Spy on Mission 2. Or if there were 2 Spies on Mission 1, since they couldn't change that Leif would be the GM on Mission 2, that they wouldn't take the risk of Failing anyway, considering we've never played before, and have him make sure he was the only Spy on Mission 2 in order to preserve some Spies with less to discuss about them. Most of us are dealing in probabilities and you seem to be a step beyond that. I don't understand your first point. Yes, there is no definitive info on the scale of bans and lynches, and that's why the spies want to avoid giving us information. If the spies let any information slip in this game, they basically lose. I'm dealing with probabilities too, just not in numbers. Instead, it's "What is more likely for the spies to do in this situation?". And importantly, I'm guessing (WARNING! BEEP BEEP! THIS IS A CONJECTURE NOT A FACT!) the spies aren't dealing in WIFOM much at this point. This GUESS is due to the simple fact that they failed both missions. That tells me they're grabbing at opportunities to get ahead, rather than playing it slow and bluffing their way through by sneakily succeeding a mission. And I think this is what will cause them to slip up, or quite possibly already has. There's a leap in my head from 'this is most likely' to 'we can safely assume'. Perhaps YOU can more readily assume since you think Leif is innocent and you 'know' you are. I think Safely is an overstate either way. But that's a bigger leap for the rest of us. Your post is written in a manner that makes it seem like you have the right answer, and that you arrived at it by logic, when actually you're just setting up guesses as true premises. I also don't like that you just annexed Furare's post. ....Right. That post was me thinking out loud and explaining to everyone how I arrived at my current conclusions, not "EVERYONE FOLLOW THIS LOGIC IT IS CORRECT". It was written from the perspective that I 'know' I'm innocent. In the very clear warning at the top of the post, I said exactly that. And yes, they are all guesses. Of course they are. That's the best we have. If you want to only rely on concrete facts you're playing the wrong game.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 28, 2014 20:22:06 GMT -8
So since I'm so woefully behind I think I'll break my thoughts into a couple/three posts. Starting from the last time I posted coherently: Something about Bunny's last post rubs me a bit the wrong way. Maybe I'm just having finding some meaning in the You Send vs Suggestion for Leif thing. Just seems odd to me. I'm quoting this because it appears to be directed at me/regarding me but I feel like there's a word missing or something because I don't understand it at all. HYPOCRISY INCOMING While I agree that we'd benefit from more discussion, this will only work if we all discuss and constructively at that. I'm picking up lots of frustration with the game format. Maybe it's not for us, but let's see it through rather than complaining about it. Once more unto the breach, dear friends, and all that. Yes, that's Henry V portrayed by a cat, from a book called Shakespeare cats that I bought as a souvenir for my mother when I went to England in the ninth grade. Apparently they have it on amazon.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 28, 2014 20:23:11 GMT -8
People I have questions for:
AL: you never answered why you said you were "wary" of me. I've now been upgraded (or downgraded?) to a series of question marks. I get that I've said nothing since I last questioned you but I'd still like to know what it was.
Riku: you said you've "already explained why you think Sets is innocent" - does this refer to the fact that Sets urged caution after the first failed mission? Which I think was the initial reason you thought he was innocent. Because he's kind of completely reversed that position toDay. So I don't see how you can stick to yesterDay's reason. Then again I may have missed why you think he's innocent today.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 28, 2014 20:24:22 GMT -8
So now as to the options we're left with from my perspective (sans numbers and percentages because my brain can't handle that right now) Forgive me if this is something if a rehash of what others have said, I'm trying to walk myself through it :
1. Leif was the only spy on both missions
I think this is unlikely, not only because I don't think firebolt is a spy due to her absence but also because I think that would be unnecessarily risky play for the spies.
2. Leif is a spy and there was more than one spy on mission 1/mission 2/both:
If there were two on mission 1, I'd say Leif and AL, because I can't see any benefit in spy! Riku sending a second spy on mission 1.
If there were two on mission 2, I think it's unlikely that Leif and Furare are spies together (faking an argument for distance is maybe a viable strategy, but I think theirs dragged on to the border of unpleasantness for the thread in general so I think they're unlikely to be spies together).
3. Leif's resistance, so there's at least one spy out of Riku/AL and Sets/Furare/Aeth
I think this is the likeliest situation. Somehow I've come out of this thinking Leif is probably resistance (and if he's not, LOL fool me once shame on you, etc.)
This means that one of Riku/AL is a spy (I don't think they're spies together, for the same reason I don't think Leif and riku are spies together) and one or possibly two of Sets/Aeth/Furare are spies.
Which makes me want to rip my hair out, because Sets remains neutral in my reading (slightly more inclined towards resistance for the disappearance late yesterDay) and Furare and Aeth both sound completely helpful and logical to me so I can't even go there. LOL if they're spies together and late yesterDay's conversation/ discussion was just an elaborate charade.
Of the non-mission-going players, I think firebolt is resistance based entirely on absence, Joly I'm neutral on though I feel the need to reread, and marinated seems to be floating in, posting suspicions with little justification, and floating out, which makes me twitch, but in the same way that marinated always makes me twitch. Though I don't see why spy! Marinated would reject a mission with a spy on it, unless it was to create distance. This, by the by, is the only thing even remotely troubling me about firebolt, because she just kind of sailed in and accepted without comment.
I'm disinclined to accept a team sent by AL due to prior suspicion and intend to reread Aeth, Furare, and Joly.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 28, 2014 20:30:49 GMT -8
Sorry for lack of quotes, I'm typing this on a tablet and finding it unwieldy. Also, autocorrect thinks Furare is a curate apparently.
And to /rant re: my exploding life
Attention whoever stole my debit card number: I hope you're enjoying the $972 worth of merchandise you purchased from marshalls, although I'm not sure how you got it all home since HOW CAN YOU EVEN SPEND 972 DOLLARS AT MARSHALLS??
Attention cashier at marshalls who didn't check ID on a $972 purchase: u r dum
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