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Post by AhoyLindsay on Jan 24, 2014 17:03:15 GMT -8
Definitely vote: Reject on that. Marinated was basically gut FoI for me, but even if Leif disagrees, that doesn't make me a spy since on a mission where only one saboteur is needed for failure, spy!me would hardly want to throw two on there. That's weird. So feels like an excuse to take me off the team-maybe since a team with two people from the first mission would be less likely to pass. Admittedly, I'm more than slightly paranoid at this point. Not inclined to accept Sets on there at the moment anyhow. -- On a lighter note, happy weekend everyone, hope it is lovely! And happy birthday Leif, sorry my present to you is rejection... We have no birthday-themed smileys so take this one instead.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 24, 2014 17:36:21 GMT -8
I'm glad you left AL off the team Leif, because her last post really bothers me, specifically her strong reiteration of her FOI for me at the top. To me that came off as "hey, you can't decide which of us is innocent! You should go with me!" Struck me really strongly.
So now (assuming 1 Spy of 3) if it's not Riku from Mission 1, I think it's AL, which means I feel Leif is the most likely innocent of the 3. I'm stuck on this team you've selected though. Furare I am ok with, as she's still reading more innocent to me, but Sets was on my Not So Much list and I'm not sure I can be ok with this team if he's on it. He's not as strong a No as AL or Riku is right now but he's still on the suspicious side to me. I know other people don't seem to see it though. AL's reject feels like it should have an impact on my opinion, but I'm playing WIFOM - if we're suspicious a strong reject might convince us there's no Spy on the team but I'm not sure AL could do anything but reject that team as a Spy, even if there is a Spy on it. Hrm. I'm going to go back and re-read Sets before I vote. I had a bad day and I've got a killer headache, but if it goes away sometime tonight I'll come back and read and post tonight. Otherwise when I get up in the morning.
Marinated, you think it likely Leif and AL are spies together? Why? And why do you feel the way you do about Fire, Riku, Sets and Furare? I know I was saying earlier that some gut was ok but an entire list with no attempt at explanation is not very helpful.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 24, 2014 19:02:20 GMT -8
So I started re-reading Sets, and it turned into re-reading most of the thread, and my head does not feel any better. I really need to learn to just put the computer down sometimes. (Too late!)
Re-reading Sets, I now get that that by 'day' he hadn't meant 'Day' even though it had read that way to me initially, and that took some of my notes about him away, because obviously not rushing straight into a new Mission Team in the first 24 hours of the Day was something we all basically agreed on. I read 'this day' as a synonym for 'ToDay' for sure the first time. Reading through the rest, I feel like my suspicion on Riku has colored my suspicion of Sets, since he felt Sets was very townish, and I still disagree totally with Riku's reasoning there in his couple of posts about it, but that doesn't mean Sets is a Spy. It may well be Spy Riku looking to sway Sets by insisting on his innocence. Kind of the way AL is bothering me with her notes on me. And now AL is hitting Sets too for being part of a Riku-Sets Spy team and since I'm pretty suspicious of AL right now, that makes me lean away from Spy Sets since I think she's a Spy. The problem with that is now other people's reactions to him are swaying me the other way. I suppose it's valid though to look at other people's reactions to people, and consider how you feel about those doing the reacting, when figuring out how you feel about who they are reacting to. It's something I always mean to analyze in ROMS and never have time to because usually the threads are so much longer.
I had asked Sets whether he had thoughts on Joly and Bunny since they posted after he poked them. He has not been back. He hasn't been here in…2 days. I feel like we need to hear from him before we Accept or Reject this mission - that's a long time for someone to be absent and be sent on a Mission. I knew it had been a little bit but I didn't realize it had been 2 days. Perhaps the rest of us should hold off voting for at least a little while longer to see if he returns? I for one need to see his current thoughts before I can decide on him - my review basically moved him back to Neutral in my book, towards innocent a bit only if I allow myself to be swayed by AL and Riku's strong reactions in either direction when I myself can't find much in either direction in just his posts alone on reread.
We have nearly 24 hours left, if we go off Wrecker's day-on post. I'm going to see if Sets is back by the time I get up in the morning. For now, early bedtime. (Oh, and Happy Birthday Leif!)
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 5:30:58 GMT -8
Suppose I say I think Leif is innocent, and obviously I am innocent (obviously to me, not necessarily to you) then if we approve this mission and it fails then I have a situation where there is 1 Spy out of AL and Riku and 1 Spy out of Aethera and Setsusa. But if I'm wrong about Leif then both failures could just be down to him.
Do I have any more dithering time? I kind of need some.
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 25, 2014 6:22:00 GMT -8
I THINK we have about 12 hours, but that's just based on Wrecker's Mission Fail post and the time she posted.
Sets poked me? I must have missed that, but y'all have to understand, it's not likely I'll be posting until after 5 eastern during the week. (2 game time, and if parenting life is crazy, it may be LATE, or even put off for the next day. The 4 day Day is nice for the busies, I think. So someone 'poking' isn't going to get me posting any faster than real life will allow. I don't do the hiding of my login thing, it's too much hassle to log in every time I want to post, so you can see when I've been here and when I haven't.
Happy birthday to Leif!
But back to a game note, if he's gone all weekend, and the Day ends early with Mission accepted, I'm a little nervous about a missing team member.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 6:23:57 GMT -8
My main concern is figuring out whether we'd learn enough from a possible failure for it to be worth it. Obviously I would prefer it to be a success, but there's nothing worse than a failure that doesn't give us enough information to help pick future successful missions.
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Post by Riku on Jan 25, 2014 11:43:09 GMT -8
Well, I think Furare and Sets are innocent. I'm not sure on Leif, but I'm more suspicious of AL than him, so I'm leaning towards innocent on him. That leaves Aeth. And honestly, the only thing that has made me think she's spy is that she proposed the mission team that failed, and while that is something I believe a spy would have done, it is definitely not exclusively something a spy would have done. An innocent could just have easily proposed that plan. And perhaps more importantly, pretty much everything else about her has seemed innocent -- her mindset, her level of discussion, etc. We really need a successful mission in either mission 2 or 3, and I'm starting to feel like a team containing two people I trust, one I think is more likely to be innocent, and one with only one thing that makes me think she's a spy is a rarity. And finally, AL, who I'm more and more starting to think is a spy, voted reject. So with that, although I was planning to almost definitely reject, I think I'm going to trust Aethera and trust Leif's judgement.
Vote: Accept
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 12:19:25 GMT -8
Suppose I say I think Leif is innocent, and obviously I am innocent (obviously to me, not necessarily to you) then if we approve this mission and it fails then I have a situation where there is 1 Spy out of AL and Riku and 1 Spy out of Aethera and Setsusa. But if I'm wrong about Leif then both failures could just be down to him. Do I have any more dithering time? I kind of need some. This is where I am, if of course you substitute your name for mine. We have about 6 hours, with no sign of Sets. It's starting to make me uncomfortable about him again. Maybe he's staying away in hopes he doesn't say anything to sway Furare and me toward Reject? I'm going to give him a little more time, and then I'll just have to decide. Is there anyone out there who can poke him?
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 12:28:02 GMT -8
If we win Mission 2, I think we stand a good chance of winning this.
Sets is utterly unaccountable as a player. But looking at the thread, he's been acting like I'd expect of innocent!Sets, especially with regards to his original opposition to sending a team early. (Best way to explain it is that innocent!Sets does whatever he thinks best with absolutely no regard for how that's going to make him look.)
Leif is a pretty combative person as an innocent, and more mellow as a bad guy. From my perspective he's blown a few things various people (not just me) have said out of proportion, and he looks kinda jumpy. So I'm thinking not-Spy. I could be entirely wrong.
Aethera seems... like Aethera. I think that she isn't particularly different as a bad guy. I'm not sure that a Spy Aethera would suggest the team choice and then a Spy Riku/AL/Leif sabotage it, but it could be a double-bluff. She seems like an innocent, but I've been anti-town with an anti-town Aethera and we both got FoI thrown at us like rose petals at a wedding party. So I don't know.
Furare is me, and Furare is entirely innocent... in a game sense.
Yes... let's hear what Sets has to say before making a decision. (PS: Aeth, he's not online on Skype or else I would.)
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 15:56:29 GMT -8
Well..hmpf. 2 hours, I'm going to go get dinner at some point soon, and no Sets. Also no Bunny in 24 hours. Weekends are bad deadline times.
Furare, I see you're around. It would take us both to pass the mission. Funny that we're both on it. Right now I'm pondering Accepting and hoping Sets will just stay absent (assuming then he doesn't get to Vote on Success or Failure) or letting it go, rejecting whatever team AL puts forward and then moving on from there.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 16:00:17 GMT -8
Are you now worried about Sets? If so, passing the mission and hoping seems... less than ideal.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 16:01:56 GMT -8
The only thing bugging me about him right now is his absence. Though I suppose a Spy would be less likely to disappear for so long. Unless it is on purpose like I mentioned earlier.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 16:05:56 GMT -8
It's Saturday, and he's hardly renowned for giving much of a crap about being around when he's got better things to be doing.
Of course, it could be intentional; it wouldn't be unlike him.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 16:09:00 GMT -8
So you think exactly the same as me. Not helping us making a decision.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 16:14:25 GMT -8
Also he's not just been gone today. He's been gone for 3 full days now.
You know, I think it would be weird for the Spy to be gone for THAT long. The last 24 hours, sure. Nearly the entire Day, no. Surely in 3 days, someone from his team would have been able to raise him if he'd forgotten or gotten busy, so he could at least come make a token post. His posts are usually short, so it wouldn't be weird if he just popped in and said something decisive.
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Post by Bunnylaroo on Jan 25, 2014 16:24:27 GMT -8
Sorry guys, my stomach bug knocked me out last night, and I'm out of town, currently in an area of cell phone service for the first time today, posting on a phone from the back seat of a car (p.s. Not a good idea when you've got a stomach bug) so I'm not caught up nor am I likely to be until I get home tonight.
I know this is unhelpful and I'm sorry
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 25, 2014 16:47:48 GMT -8
Aw, Bunny. I'm not sure that a spy!Aethera would care this much about getting the mission together, and I think she's right that an innocent!Sets would be more likely to go AWOL for days at a time. I'm just gonna Vote: AcceptDithering never helped anyone.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 25, 2014 16:49:19 GMT -8
Bleh, alright. It's time for me to go out. It seems Furare has fallen asleep, so this is probably useless, but I'm going to Vote: Accept.
I think it's unlikely a Spy would forget about the game for 3 whole days. And I feel ok about Furare & Leif, so hopefully we'll be good.
And yeesh Bunny, that totally sucks. I really, really hope you feel better.
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Post by wrecker15 on Jan 25, 2014 17:22:20 GMT -8
Okay, that's a pass.
Mission people have 24 hours to send me their replies. So up till 10am my time on Monday, or... Umm 6pm Sunday, PSR.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 25, 2014 18:15:21 GMT -8
I could give you all my excuses for why I haven't been around but Furare''s already heard them. In any case, I went to my parents place for the weekend and have plans tomorrow so chances are I will say something either towards midnight EST tomorrow or Monday. Unless of course I do it today after parents go to bed. WE'LL SEE!
I'd also apologize but I think we mutually don't mind.
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Post by Aethera on Jan 26, 2014 10:09:11 GMT -8
Well I'm glad Sets is back. I do understand weekend commitments, but letting us know in advance would have saved me some stress last night. Last night, I waited around for Furare a while, wrote that post, got distracted by the phone for a few minutes, and then hit Create Post without Previewing and ran out the door. I was hoping she'd make it back and make a decision, but either way I felt it was important to make one myself. Got a bit drunk last night, which I tell you so I can extoll the virtues of the cocktail I had. (Seriously, this restaurant has a drink called the Titanic which is vodka with muddled grape and a CHAMPAGNE SORBET ICEBERG and it is so delicious.) So I didn't know our status til now…I slept in rather later than normal to avoid the hangover. My time is going to be more limited starting tomorrow - I'm losing my nights to community theatre this week and the next 3 weekends (we're doing La Cage). I will try to continue popping on at work though - that shouldn't be too much of a problem, I'm hoping.
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Post by Jolyma on Jan 26, 2014 10:27:36 GMT -8
I really, really wish my van would start. My husband has been great about being the chauffeur/errand boy in his truck, but I hate driving that beast in the snow. Rear wheel drive pickup, he didn't put any weight in the back this winter. Stupid minivan will turn over, but it won't catch. Not the battery, not the starter, not the alternator, so we're thinking fuel pump, and I don't think that's something I'm capable of replacing myself.
Which means a tow and a mechanic.
Grr.
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Post by wrecker15 on Jan 26, 2014 18:10:16 GMT -8
Mission Failed.
Your next deadline is Friday 10am my time, or 6pm on Thursday (PST).
Current GM: AhoyLindsay
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Post by Riku on Jan 26, 2014 21:14:04 GMT -8
So in my opinion, there's now two possibilities: Leif failed both the missions, or AL failed the first one and either Aeth or Furare failed the second one. I'm more suspicious of AL than Leif, so I'm leaning towards the second option, and between Aeth and Furare I'm leaning towards it being Aeth.
I was planning on being very reluctant to accept last cycle, and I ended up voting accept and it did not turn out well, so now I'm even more hesitant. Especially because if the next mission fails we lose.
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Post by Setsusa on Jan 27, 2014 4:56:59 GMT -8
I'm of the opinion Leif is a spy. I didn't have a chance to express my concerns during the vote phase but that's my own fault.
I'm not going to hold to a hesitant stance at this point as that was quite clearly unheeded and in some cases apparently paints me a spy.
Because I think Leif is a spy I would accept a team including previously used people excluding Leif.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 5:26:42 GMT -8
The simplest solution would be that Leif is a Spy, being the only common link between the two missions.
Would that really be wise? I think the key question is, would the Spies fail Mission #2 if there were two Spies on it. Or indeed if they would have failed Mission #1 if there were two Spies on that.
If we suppose that there was one Spy on each Mission, and imagine for a moment that in both cases the Spy was Leif, that would mean that of the 4 people who have not been on a Mission yet (Jolyma, Marinated, Firebolt and Bunny), three must be Spies. I don't think that's a situation that the Spy team would want to set up unless they thought that they could induce us to pick from the people "untainted" by failure.
To show my working logically:
Supposition #1: There was one Spy on each Mission. Supposition #2: Leif is a Spy.
Leads to: Conclusion #1: Any person who has not been on a mission has a 75% chance of being a Spy. Conclusion #2: Picking any 4 non-Leif persons from the list of those already deployed should give a guaranteed success and a lock victory since we can send all 5 non-Leif persons on the 5 man missions.
Taking the above, I think it shows that either Supposition #1, Supposition #2, or both are flawed. So either Leif is not a Spy, or there was more than one Spy on either Mission #1 or Mission #2. Leif's reactions this game have seemed genuine and conforming to his innocent behaviour so I discard Supposition #2, while bearing in mind that #1 could also be erroneous.
My current best guess is that AL is a Spy from Mission #1, though I don't discount Riku from consideration. I would also imagine that Aethera is the Spy from Mission #2; it's a subtle thing, but her actions towards the end of the deadline period left me feeling a little harried into making a decision and also doubting of Sets. There is also the possibility that she is entirely genuine and that Setsusa's actions really are of concern.
Given my musings above I am not inclined to accept any mission that AL proposes unless my feelings change on the probability of his being a Spy. I am not sure at this juncture which people I would trust to go on a future mission. I definitely feel how close defeat is, and I am not entirely sure why Wrecker said some of the things she did in our discussion prior to her deciding to run one of these games. That doesn't appear to be how the game works at all in practice. Huh.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 5:29:31 GMT -8
I'm still not sure why I habitually use male pronouns for AL.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 27, 2014 7:25:53 GMT -8
I'm back, and catching up.
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Leif
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Post by Leif on Jan 27, 2014 7:34:09 GMT -8
Also, I was pretty sure that would work. Furare's work there is interesting. I need to think through who the spy most likely would be.
I mostly use male pronouns for AL because he was playing a male pirate when I met him. Also, you should all wish AL a happy birthday.
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Furare
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Post by Furare on Jan 27, 2014 7:57:30 GMT -8
Happy birthday, AL!
Also happy birthday, Leif, I'm so embarrassed I forgot to wish you on Friday like I should've done.
Re-reading my last post, I feel like my use of language has been influenced by the historical fiction I've been reading of late.
Of course, it's possible that any conclusion I've drawn, the Spies expected or intended me to draw. According to Wrecker, after two failures you're supposed to be able to reason it down to who's innocent and who's Spy, but I have to confess that I can't see my way clear to that right now.
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